Canada & India Relations Are At The Lowest Ebb & It May Affect Indian Citizens Working There

Notwithstanding our inflated claim of being ‘Vishav Guru’, a defective diplomacy of putting all eggs in one basket gave an opportunity to Maldives president, Mohamed Muizzu to sway his voters on the slogan of "Out India" followed by election of ‘Pro China’ incumbent.

Anura Kumara Dissanayake and then ouster of a dictatorial friend, Sheikh Hasina, which has enhanced Dragon's influence in South Asia. Subsequently, Canada's atrocious and wild allegations of killing of Khalistani leader, Hardeep Singh Nijjar by Indian agents has been responsible for the expulsion of diplomats by both countries though truth will come to the surface after investigation.

Vote Bank Politics and the Sikh Community's Role Significance of the Sikh Community in Canada: Canada has one of the largest Sikh populations outside of India, with an estimated 770,000 Sikhs, making up about 2% of the total Canadian population. Many of these Sikhs are concentrated in electoral districts in British Columbia, Ontario, and Alberta. In some constituencies, Sikhs represent a significant voting bloc, which can influence election outcomes. Indian students were the largest contributors to the Canadian economy among international students, accounting for around 40% or $10.2 billion of the total $22.3 billion in 2022.

New government data shows that international students' spending added $30.9 billion to Canada's GDP in 2022. As per data, the number of Indian students granted study permits rose to 278,250, making up 40.7% of the 682,060 international students by 2023,. In 2024, up until August, 137,445 Indian students have received study permits out of 374,060 international students, representing 36.7%, a decrease of about 4% compared to 2023 which be affected owing current to current bitter face-off between two countries.

At this juncture, a new twist has been added to this sordid drama as America, a strategic and geo political partner of India, has joined hands with Canada and accused India in an identical manner of orchestrating a conspiracy to eliminate its citizen and Khalisatani propagator, Gurpatwant Singh Pannu through its intelligence agencies. Experts say that America’s decision to side with Canada and levelling an allegations on unlawful plan of killing of its citizen does not auger well for India diplomacy.

Future Impact & Trudeaus' Compulsion

On the outset, Canada PM ,Justine Trudeau’s blatant accusations against India seem to be the by-product of vote bank politics and desperate bid to save his chair as India has lambasted him for not providing credible evidence of involvement of Indian diplomat in Ottawa in using Bishnoi Gang to gun down Nijjar outside Gurdawara on June 18,2023 in British Columbia.

In this backdrop, the fallout of the current diplomatic tensions between India and Canada, particularly in the wake of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s accusations and expulsions of diplomats by both sides, could have significant consequences for Indian citizens working, studying, or planning to immigrate to Canada.

Trudeau’s Liberal Party has been facing declining support, and his minority government has been kept afloat by the New Democratic Party (NDP), led by Jagmeet Singh, a prominent Sikh politician. The NDP’s support base includes a significant portion of Canada’s Sikh population, and Trudeau may be attempting to retain their support by taking a tough stance against India, which is perceived by some Sikhs in Canada as being hostile to their interests.

Vote Bank Politics & The Sikh Community's Role Significance Of The Sikh Community In Canada: Canada has one of the largest Sikh populations outside of India, with an estimated 770,000 Sikhs, making up about 2% of the total Canadian population. Many of these Sikhs are concentrated in electoral districts in British Columbia, Ontario, and Alberta. In some constituencies, Sikhs represent a significant voting bloc, which can influence election outcomes.

Upcoming Elections: With elections expected by 2025, Trudeau needs to consolidate his support among key communities. Given the current minority government status, he must rely on alliances, such as with the NDP, and maintain his standing in immigrant-rich constituencies, including those dominated by Sikhs. His recent diplomatic actions appear designed to shore up this support by aligning himself with issues important to these groups.

Importance to Trudeau’s Liberal Party: The Sikh community has historically supported the Liberal Party, particularly under Trudeau. Many high-profile Sikh leaders, including ministers in his cabinet, are from this community. Thus, maintaining their support is crucial for the Liberal Party’s prospects in the next election.

Khalistan Issue: While not all Sikhs in Canada support the Khalistan movement, those who do have formed influential advocacy groups that have pushed the issue into Canadian politics. Trudeau’s overtures to this section of the electorate have been interpreted as efforts to protect his vote base, especially as his government faces increasing political pressure ahead of future elections.

Fallout On Indians Working In Canada

The deteriorating relations between the two countries may affect several key areas:

1. Impact on Indian Workers in Canada: Indian Workforce in Canada: Indians form a significant part of Canada’s skilled workforce, especially in sectors like IT, healthcare, engineering, and finance. Over the years, Canada has become a top destination for skilled professionals from India due to its immigration-friendly policies.

Visa and Work Permit Issues: While the immediate impact on Indian workers in Canada has been limited, any prolonged diplomatic standoff could lead to delays in the processing of work permits, visa renewals, and permanent residency (PR) applications. The processing times might increase, and stricter scrutiny could be imposed. Uncertainty for Future Migrants: Potential immigrants or those awaiting work permits may face hurdles in terms of visa approvals. If relations continue to sour, Canada might impose tighter immigration controls on Indian workers, which could hamper the flow of professionals into the country.

2. Impact on Indian Students in Canada

Large Indian Student Population: Canada has become a major destination for Indian students, with nearly 320,000 Indian students enrolled in Canadian universities as of 2023. The country's world-class education system, relatively easier immigration pathways post-graduation, and diverse work opportunities have made it attractive for Indian students.

Visa Delays: The current diplomatic tension may lead to delays in student visa approvals or increased scrutiny of applications. While there is no immediate indication that Indian students will face outright rejections, the uncertainty could cause stress and delays in admission procedures, particularly for new applicants.

Post-Graduation Work Opportunities: Many Indian students stay in Canada after completing their studies under post-graduation work permits (PGWP) and eventually apply for permanent residency. The growing tension could complicate this process, making it harder for students to transition smoothly from education to employment.

3. Impact on Immigration Pathways: Express Entry and Permanent Residency: Canada’s Express Entry program, which has been highly favourable for Indian professionals and students seeking permanent residency, might slow down or become more stringent if the diplomatic rift deepens. There could be longer processing times, more stringent background checks, and even potential policy changes affecting the Indian applicants.

Family Reunification: Indian citizens who have family members in Canada and are in the process of family reunification (sponsorship programs) could face delays in their applications due to the diplomatic standoff.

4. Trade and Bilateral Agreements: Professional Mobility: If diplomatic tensions continue, professional exchanges, joint ventures, and corporate partnerships involving Indian and Canadian companies might slow down. This could reduce job opportunities for Indian professionals working for Canadian companies in sectors like IT, telecommunications, and consulting.

Impact on New Immigration Streams: The Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), which India and Canada had been discussing, could be put on hold. This would affect initiatives meant to streamline immigration for Indian professionals and create pathways for smoother trade and employment relations.

5. Solutions to Mitigate the Fallout. Diplomatic Resolution: The most effective way to mitigate the fallout is through diplomatic dialogue. Both governments must find common ground and work towards de-escalation. Diplomatic channels should prioritize resolving misunderstandings while protecting the interests of citizens on both sides.

Temporary Shift to Alternative Countries: While waiting for the situation to stabilize, students and professionals might consider alternative countries such as the UK, Australia, or Germany, which offer similar educational and work opportunities for Indian nationals.

Experts say that Trudeau may also be positioning himself as a defender of Canadian sovereignty by alleging foreign interference, a move that could resonate with voters concerned about national security. This fits with broader concerns in the West about foreign interference in domestic politics, even though India has categorically denied the allegations.

India-Canada ties are indeed at their lowest ebb following Canadian Prime Minister’s accusation that Indian agents were involved in the killing of Khalistani leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar on Canadian soil. This extreme diplomatic move, which has severely strained relations between the two countries, is seen as a combination of vote bank politics and Trudeau’s handling of domestic pressures, especially in light of upcoming elections.

(Writer is strategic columnist having six year experience of foreign positing for a Premier English daily of India)