The biggest failure of the BJP since 2014 is that it has failed to decode ‘Code Kejriwal’. Kejriwal has been the biggest headache for the Modi-led BJP. Modi wins every election, but Delhi assembly elections have been beyond his reach. The last two attempts, the two most humiliating defeats, have tarnished Modi’s image as a leader who has won elections that once seemed to be very difficult for the party. He has snatched victories from the jaws of defeat. In the last ten years, Modi, with his new template of contesting elections, has turned the table on his opponents many times. But Delhi has mysteriously been his Waterloo. In this context, can it even be asked if he will be the third time lucky? I am not very sure. ‘Code Kejriwal’ is still a great puzzle, and at a time when polling is only a week away, BJP is still struggling to find an answer to Kejriwal’s antics. Kejriwal has been so artful with his craft that since having come out of jail, he has not let the BJP set a narrative. He lays the trap, and BJP willingly or unwillingly falls into that.
Kejriwal has been vulnerable this time. He was nervous when he came out of jail. He must have had sleepless nights with defeat staring at him. He knew he was facing the most difficult election in his decade-long career. He was not only facing almost 11 years of anti-incumbency against his one government, but he was also aware that corruption charges had robbed him of his moral aura, and he was no longer treated like a radical revolutionary, and his party was no longer seen as a harbinger of the movement that once promised to make India a corruption-free society. Due to his own faults, Kejriwal has been reduced to being like any other politician, with the same Machiavellian streak, with no moral bone in his body and no ethical compunction while facing voters. For him, winning is the only calling card, and capturing the seat of power is the only morality. The BJP was ideally placed to inflict fatal wounds and unseat him. It had the advantage, which it squandered royally in the last four months. Nobody but the BJP is to be blamed if it loses elections yet again in the national capital.
The same old abusive language and the same old rotten rhetoric were repeated, that which I heard in the 2013 assembly elections when Modi was still not the prime minister, in 2015 when Modi, like a colossus, strode across India, and also in 2020, when his popularity was soaring with 303 seats in his kitty. The same narrative of Kejriwal being a liar, who swore by his son only to break the promise; that he betrayed his own guru, Anna Hazare; that he ditched all his friends and colleagues, who were once part of his team; that he is a fake Hindu; that he has no ideology; that he is an opportunist; that he is an anarchist; that he is an urban naxal, etc. If the BJP thought that by repeating this rhetoric, and accusations, it could defeat him, then the party was living in a fool's paradise. Kejriwal is made of a different mettle. Like Modi, he is not a traditional politician.
Unlike Kejriwal, Modi is lucky to be blessed with a powerful organisation, a massive army of volunteers, and an ideology with a certain utopia called Hindu Rashtra, which keeps inspiring his followers. Modi’s genius lies in having built his own cult, understanding the power of communication, and marrying the two with unprecedented money power and capital. Before him, the BJP had an organisation, an ideology, and a utopia, but due to a lack of the three Cs, which are charisma, communication, and capital, it was in the wilderness for ten years. It was Modi who turned the BJP into an election-winning machine. In contrast, Kejriwal did not have the advantage of organisation and ideology. He is charismatic and a genius in weaving a narrative, but he does not have the support of big money. Then, after becoming the prime minister, Modi broke the back of every institution that could have fettered him. He brazenly used government agencies to emasculate the opposition. The whole election machinery, which by definition should provide a level playing field for the parties contesting elections, if elections have to be free and fair, is so tilted in favour of the BJP that the opposition can only complain until it is hoarse. Yet, Kejriwal managed to win with massive numbers.
Kejriwal compensates for these disadvantages with his brilliance in accurately reading the pulse of the people and telling them a believable story. The BJP might like to paint him as a demon, but he presents himself as an ‘innocent soul’ with human frailties who is being victimised for trying to do good for the people. He might have been in jail, but he packages himself as an honest broker. In this election, he knew that the BJP would attack him for being a power grabber, and his luxurious bungalow would be the BJP’s major election plank; he resigned from the chief minister’s post and swiftly moved to another house. He knew that he would be attacked for not cleaning Yamuna and not making roads better; before the BJP could pick the gun, he went to people and apologised for not fulfilling these promises. Unlike Modi, he packages himself like an ordinary human being, which makes people feel that Kejriwal is one of them who should be forgiven for any mistake that he may commit, like all humans do.
However, his biggest asset is his immense desire to succeed and inner resilience to adopt any tactic and think out of the box. Unlike Rahul Gandhi, most of the time, he does not think in a linear manner and is not constrained by any idea, ideology or dogma. Like Modi, he can walk the extra mile to win an election. His immense capacity for a pre-emptive strike is his Amogh Ashatra, which gives him an edge over others. This time, before the start of the elections, he had anticipated what lay in the BJP’s armoury and before the BJP could use its tactics, he started neutralising them.
The BJP’s failure is that it treats Kejriwal like any other politician and uses the same toolkit. I know that after the MP, Haryana and Maharashtra assembly elections, it is difficult to say what the result will be. Still, in these elections, the BJP has not shown any inclination to counter Kejriwal in the way Kejriwal deals with his opponents. Unless the BJP cracks Code Kejriwal, it is difficult to say the party will have a smooth ride in the Delhi elections.
