With just one Premier League matchday remaining, the race for Champions League qualification is reaching its dramatic conclusion. While Liverpool, Arsenal, and Europa League winners Tottenham Hotspur have already secured their spots in next season’s elite European competition, three more places remain up for grabs.
Five clubs, Manchester City, Chelsea, Newcastle United, Aston Villa, and Nottingham Forest are battling for those coveted spots. Here's how Chelsea, in particular, can secure their place in the 2025/26 UEFA Champions League
Chelsea's Champions League Qualification Scenario
Win Against Nottingham Forest
A victory at the City Ground would almost certainly seal Chelsea's place in the top five. The only scenario where it wouldn’t be enough is if Newcastle, Manchester City, and Aston Villa all win — and Villa manage to beat Manchester United by 11 goals more than Chelsea’s winning margin against Forest. That outcome would require a Premier League record-breaking win.
Draw with Nottingham Forest
A single point might be enough, provided one of these results goes Chelsea's way:
1) Aston Villa fail to win at Old Trafford, or
2) Newcastle United lose to Everton.
3) Lose to Nottingham Forest:
4) Even in defeat, Chelsea could still sneak into the top five — but only if
Aston Villa lose to Manchester United, and
5) Newcastle lose to Everton by at least three goals more than Chelsea’s loss margin to Forest.
What are the chances for other teams qualification chances?
Manchester City will be assured of a top-five finish with a win. Even a draw is expected to be enough in most outcomes.
Newcastle United also lock in a Champions League spot with a win over Everton.
Aston Villa must beat Manchester United and finish with a better result than Chelsea to leapfrog into the top five.
Nottingham Forest need to beat Chelsea and hope Aston Villa do not win. A draw won’t be enough for Forest under any circumstances.
