Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Independence Day address has been in the news for various reasons. It was not for nothing that his speech was the longest since he assumed office in 2014, lasting 104 minutes. He addressed the concerns of the nation and focused on how his government intends to shape the future of India. What many missed was that, simultaneously, he addressed his own concerns and spelt out his future plans.
In a firm, albeit subtle, manner, he hinted that he was going nowhere and intended to continue in the post even after turning 75 next month. Back in 2014, after successfully leading the BJP to power, he minced no words in declaring that anyone above 75 would not get a berth in his council of ministers and that politicians should retire at this age and become “Marg Darshaks” (mentors, advisors and guides) of the party. The idea when he propounded this theory was mainly to keep out two seniors, including his mentor Lal Krishna Advani and Murli Manohar Joshi, from the government. Admittedly, he did not want seniors under whom he had grown politically to breathe down his neck. Probably, Modi never reckoned then that he would get a third term as the Indian premier in 2024.
However, 11 years down the line, murmurs started becoming louder about whether he would step down from the post after he turns 75 on September 17, 2025. They forgot that this rule was not carved in stone and that such verbal rules are often made to be broken.
Referring to his ambition of guiding India to become the world’s third-largest economy soon, he said that he would make this announcement himself from the Red Fort. This was the first subtle hint to put a full stop to all talks about him stepping down as the prime minister of India. According to present projections, India is expected to achieve this status by overtaking Germany in 2028. So, in a nutshell, Modi would make this announcement from the Red Fort in his August 15, 2028, address, when he would be on the verge of completing his third stint as PM, which lasts till 2029. And probably, he is already looking forward to a fourth tenure, which would enable him to overtake Jawaharlal Nehru, who served as PM for approximately 17 years and remains the longest-serving prime minister of India. Modi became the second-longest-serving PM in July, overtaking Indira Gandhi, who was at the helm for 11 years and 59 days. By the time the 2029 general elections come, Modi will be 78. Some quarters are already suggesting that if Donald Trump could become the US President at 78, why not Modi?
However, this would not be possible unless the RSS gives the green signal. All said and done, the RSS continues to wield enormous influence, if not control, over the BJP. A wise Modi would never like to take on the RSS. Hence, in his out-of-the-way praise for the RSS from the ramparts of the Red Fort in his Independence Day address, he hailed it as the world’s biggest NGO, which is set to complete 100 years just 10 days after Modi turns 75.
“Today, from the ramparts of the Red Fort, I salute all the swayamsevaks who have contributed to this century-long journey of national service. The nation takes pride in this grand and dedicated journey of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, which will continue to inspire us,” Modi said.
That all has not been well between Modi and the RSS is reflected in the BJP’s inability to name its new president. JP Nadda completed his tenure as BJP president in January 2023. Nadda was made a cabinet minister in the Modi government in 2024, indicating that a new party chief would be elected soon. A year down the line, Nadda continues to hold twin posts, against the party constitution, due to the BJP’s inability to name his successor. This is largely attributed to the deadlock between the Modi-Shah faction, which dominates the party, and the RSS. There is considerable delay in naming the new vice-president of the country as well, for the same reason.
One would hope that with Modi taking the risk of saluting the RSS from the ramparts of the Red Fort, he has, in a way, bowed before the BJP’s alma mater, the RSS, only to conquer.
Modi has, over the years, sidelined all those who could challenge his authority. This process started while he served as the Gujarat chief minister. As soon as Atal Bihari Vajpayee became the prime minister in 1998, the RSS branches, like the Vishwa Hindu Parishad and Swadeshi Jagran Manch, started to dictate terms. However, in a subtle way, Modi marginalised top VHP leader Pravin Togadia, who turned a bitter critic of Modi after failing to backseat-drive the Modi government in Gujarat. It has come to such a pass that he was found in an unconscious state at a park in Ahmedabad in 2018, and few know of his whereabouts now.
Modi has moved his dice wisely, and it would be interesting to see how the RSS reacts to his public overtures so that Modi continues to wield influence on the BJP and the central government well beyond September 17.
Ajay Jha is a senior journalist, author and political commentator.
