Before Donald Trump inveigles for himself the Nobel Peace Prize New Delhi might as well appoint him the Spokesperson of the Government of India and earn some brownie points. Brownie points are sorely needed for our foreign policy right now. Trump makes a very good case for brownie points. He speaks more often than our Spokesperson and enunciates matters more clearly. He follows that Stark Trek dictum and often goes where no man has gone before. He goes and does things that were unthinkable in the world of strategic affairs twisting well settled international principles around as though they were so much play dough. Certainly, some world leaders are noticeably more silly-putty in his hands than others.
Trump goes and says things that our Ministry of External Affairs Spokesperson just can’t, not while the Parliament is on and in an unvarnished fashion. He doesn't hide behind anonymity . Our spokespeople are trained to push out quietly intense, anodyne, vaguely supercilious on-record statements like “India and US ties have been through tough times and we will get through this one as well.” The newspapers then dutifully splash it on Page One, saying government has clarified and proceed to run editorials on those lines throwing in words like ‘thankfully’ or ‘not a moment too soon’ to qualify the clarification which is almost invariably as clear as mud. Trump just announced (Saturday our time, Friday his) for example, a major change in our energy policy, saying, “Well, I understand that India is no longer going to be buying oil from Russia. I don’t know whether that’s right or not. But it’s a good step! We will see what happens.” See, here is someone who also hands out certificates for good behavior with a patronizing pat pat and a veiled warning not to stray too far away from the recommended line. The carrot that follows the stick. Translated into English that is coercive diplomacy. The fall-out will be wide-ranging and result in wholesale transformations in our foreign policy postures. Some of the postures we will have to adopt on some of our shibboleth issues will make the most supple circus contortionist look like an unyielding log of wood in comparison.
It’s a wonder that New Delhi didn’t see it coming. It’s a wonder that the foreign policy and strategic lot consistently missed a whole lot of woods for a few stunted trees. That takes a lot of training. The warning signs have been there for a long time. Public admonitions from President Trump have come aplenty. The bush wire signaling inside the system from Foggy Bottom to South Block must have gone frantically clickety-clack. And yet, and yet, this happens. Trump has taken aim at our arms purchases from Russia, that will surely be next to be subsumed by a mass of spokesperson gobbledygook. Trump has made it clear what he thinks of BRICS grouping for instance. "When I heard about this group from BRICS, six countries, basically, I hit them very, very hard. And if they ever really form in a meaningful way, it will end very quickly.” And , “Any Country aligning themselves with the Anti-American policies of BRICS, will be charged an ADDITIONAL 10% Tariff. There will be no exceptions to this policy. Thank you for your attention to this matter! ”New Delhi is set to be the next head honcho of this grouping. Good luck with that. So much for the Global South and people centric and humanity-first agenda and thanks for all the fish.
The problem is Trump is playing professional hardball and New Delhi is in the amateur softball championship league in terms of gamesmanship, strategically, tactically, every which way. Think gulley cricket. Take the Pakistan policy for example. That whole shebang has gone down a strategic rabbit hole and we are still reading the exit signs, scratching our heads in bewilderment and befuddlement. Having taken advantage of Trump’s personality and natural tendencies, Pakistan has cunningly hewed tactically to the right side of the Trump’s New World Disorder thereby vastly shortening the distance from Islamabad to Washington to a mere stone’s throw. Whereas the distance from New Delhi to the White House has gotten much longer coverable only by certain Boeing aircraft. Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir Ahmed Shah is a veteran hitchhiker who has hitched yet another ride with Washington and taken in the process US Central Command (CENTCOM) chief General Michael Kurilla emotional hostage. Kurilla suffers from the typical Stockholm Syndrome that arises solely out of years of episodically dealing with the bad guys (read Pakistan) through the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan and the aftermath of 9/11 when Osama bin Laden was given proxy citizenship by General Munir’s illustrious predecessors. It is an incurable disease where the Pentagon in concerned. New Delhi misdiagnosed it and mistreated with typical elan and style. The good General Kurilla has certified Pakistan a “phenomenal partner” in the fight against terrorism. Gen Kurilla even gives us a time line: since early 2024. Wonder what our analysts were doing then. Of course, having comprehensively attenuated presence in Islamabad, New Delhi had to use view finders and other high-precision Aviation Research Centre gadgets to determine what was really going on in Islamabad and its environs. New Delhi has been without credible eyes and ears in Pakistan so long that all our analyses on our terrorist state neighbour have been about as precise, scientific as Chinese tea leaf reading. Now we are in a position where the commander in chief of the world has taken to serial-mocking us, “Maybe they’ll (Pakistan) sell India (oil)!” That is the lie of the land now, friends. Make that 41 countries we will be sourcing oil from henceforward, not forty as our esteemed petroleum ministry suggests. There could even be an MFN thrown in. Jackpot, absolutely. Having nominated Trump for Nobel Peace Prize, Munir has paid the piper. And we know he who pays the piper calls the tune.
Hoary arguments will be persuasively made in several thousand column inches and prime time television that whatever advantage Pakistan has got courtesy Trump is chimerical, tactical, fleeting, inconsequential, not solid. But that is precisely the point. Pakistan, tactically, is in a place where hyphenation no longer matters. Hyphenation implies equivalence. No longer. In Trump’s eyes Pakistan is no longer a problem. It is not even a part of BRICS. On the other hand it just got arguably promoted from a ‘major non-NATO ally’ to ‘most trusted major non-Nato ally.’ Trump will soon come up with a suitable epithet that covers it. We will know when he mentions it in his Nobel Prize acceptance speech, thanking his sponsors.
V Sudarashan, is the editor of FPJ |
