The exit of the Aam Aadmi Party from the INDIA bloc just ahead of the monsoon session of Parliament does not bode well for the grouping’s future, especially with crucial state elections around the corner. AAP justified its move, saying the alliance had been only for the 2024 election. Party MP Sanjay Singh also blamed the Congress for not taking the lead, despite being the largest party in the bloc, in arranging follow-up meetings or strategy sessions.
Burnt after its poor showing in the 2024 Lok Sabha election in Delhi, which the AAP fought in alliance with the Congress (the BJP won all seven seats), it decided to go solo in the Assembly election in Delhi a few months later but suffered a humiliating defeat. After licking its wounds in private for some time, the party bounced back, winning two Assembly by-elections in Gujarat and Punjab, relegating Congress to third and second places, respectively.
Now it is clear that the party will fight the Bihar elections, which are just months away. How this will affect the prospects of the parties in the INDIA bloc, such as RJD, Congress and the Left, vis a vis the NDA, remains to be seen. Elections are due in Tamil Nadu and Kerala next year, where the AAP has no significant presence, but in 2027, both Gujarat and Punjab go to the polls. This will be a huge opportunity for AAP to make a comeback and reinforce its presence on the national stage.
In Gujarat, the Congress and the BJP are in direct contest, but, as the election in 2022 proved, AAP is no pushover. It managed to garner a significant vote share, bagging five seats, and proved the spoiler for the Congress by splitting the anti-BJP vote. The Grand Old Party dubbed it the ‘B’ team of the BJP. In Punjab, AAP has proved to be a formidable contender to the Congress, throwing it out of power in 2022. Of course, the Grand Old Party was largely to blame for its plight because it was unable to control rampant infighting.
Given that AAP originated out of its opposition to the alleged corruption of the Congress-led UPA government at the centre, the party’s position in the INDIA bloc was always a question mark. The Delhi unit of the Congress has been firmly opposed to any tie-up with AAP, and the alliance for the 2024 Lok Sabha election, imposed by the high command, was unnatural, to say the least.
The INDIA bloc parties, which held a virtual meeting ahead of the Parliament session to finalise floor strategy, decided to corner the government on several issues, including Operation Sindoor, especially given Donald Trump’s frequent assertions of having engineered an Indo-Pak ceasefire, and the ongoing Special Intensive Revision of rolls in Bihar.
At a press briefing, the INDIA spokesperson refrained from commenting on AAP’s decision to stay, away but the fact is with nine MPs in the Rajya Sabha and three in the Lok Sabha, the opposition grouping will feel the impact of the Arvind Kejriwal-led party’s exit during the current session. Opposition unity is only a myth, many observers feel, and AAP’s decision to quit the INDIA bloc has only reinforced that view.
