The outcome of the by-election in Nilambur will be a crucial indicator for the upcoming panchayat elections in Kerala as well as next year’s Assembly elections in the state. Both the ruling Left Democratic Front and the Opposition United Democratic Front, led by the Congress, are hoping to score a victory in order to make a statement about their prospects. The high-octane campaign for a lone Assembly seat drawing in bigwigs like Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan and Congress’ Wayanad MP Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, as well as the continued media focus, is indicative of the importance of Nilambur for Kerala’s politics. The bypoll was necessitated by the resignation of the Left-backed Independent P.V. Anvar some months ago after levelling a series of allegations against Pinarayi Vijayan. The bypoll appeared to be a straight contest between the LDF and the UDF, as Anvar, who had since then joined the Trinamul Congress, had pledged support to the latter when the Congress had agreed to field a candidate of his choice, V.S. Joy. However, after Sunny Joseph was appointed as the KPCC chief, the Congress had a change of heart and decided to nominate Aryadan Shaukath, son of veteran leader Aryadan Muhammad, who had represented the constituency for eight consecutive terms from 1965 to 2016, as the candidate for Nilambur. This irked Anwar, who views Shaukath as his arch-rival, and he initially tried to contest as a Trinamul candidate, but after his nomination was rejected, decided to fight as an Independent.
The LDF named former legislator M. Swaraj, known to be a popular leader, as the candidate. Nilambur is the only constituency in Malappuram which does not have a Muslim majority population. Hindus and Muslims are in almost equal numbers, and Christians constitute about 10 per cent of the population. The BJP decided to field Mohan George, who was affiliated with various Kerala Congress factions, hoping that he would influence the Christian settlers of the region. George joined the BJP only this month. Nilambur is essentially a UDF stronghold, and the Congress is hoping it will sail through. The Left and the BJP are, however, banking on Anwar and George cutting into the UDF’s votes. The importance of Nilambur can be gauged from the high-pitched campaign that saw Left leaders, led by the Chief Minister, camping in the constituency even while a burning ship was wreaking havoc on Kerala’s coastline and endangering the livelihood of fishermen. The Congress, not to be outdone, brought out its big guns. Priyanka Vadra raised the plight of ASHA workers and the man-human conflict in the region. Congress general secretary K.C. Venugopal alleged irregularities in the distribution of welfare pensions. Vijayan, in turn, accused the Congress of aligning with communal forces. The heavy rain that lashed Kerala failed to deter political parties from the campaign trail. Now Keralites are waiting with bated breath for the outcome of the poll that will give either of the two political groupings in the state bragging rights and the hope to tilt Verdict 2026.
