Will India broker peace between US and Russia at G20 foreign ministers' meet?

Against the backdrop of heightened tensions between Moscow and Washington due to the Ukraine invasion, the foreign minister of Russia, Sergey Lavrov, is scheduled to meet US Secretary of State Antony Blinken at the G20 foreign ministers’ meeting in New Delhi on 1 and 2 March.

This meeting comes at a time when India, the current G20 presidency holder since 1 December 2022, is hosting both leaders, coinciding with the first anniversary of Russia's war in Ukraine on 24 February.

During the G20 meeting in Bengaluru last Saturday (25 February), the finance ministers of the world's biggest economies were unable to reach a consensus on a final statement due to objections from Russia and China concerning the description of the conflict in Ukraine.

As Lavrov and Blinken prepare to meet at the G20 foreign ministers' gathering in New Delhi, what outcomes can we anticipate? Is India going to make an effort to mediate between Russia and the United States? Let's analyse this subject more closely.

𝗕𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗸𝗲𝗻 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗟𝗮𝘃𝗿𝗼𝘃'𝘀 𝗼𝗻𝗲-𝗼𝗻-𝗼𝗻𝗲 𝗺𝗲𝗲𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘂𝗻𝗹𝗶𝗸𝗲𝗹𝘆, 𝗯𝘂𝘁 𝗘𝗔𝗠, 𝗣𝗠 𝘁𝗼 𝗵𝗼𝗹𝗱 𝘀𝗲𝗽𝗮𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝘁𝗮𝗹𝗸𝘀

According to ThePrint, it is unlikely that Blinken and Lavrov will have a one-on-one meeting on the sidelines of the G20 conference. However, they will both have individual talks with external affairs minister S Jaishankar and will also meet with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, as per the report.

During his visit, Blinken will “underscore the damage that Russia’s war of aggression has caused” and encourage nations to increase their demands for Russia to terminate the conflict, as previously stated by Ramin Toloui, the US assistant secretary of state for economic and business affairs, as reported by Reuters.

Toloui further added that the US Secretary of State will also emphasise the United States' endeavors to “address food and energy security issues affecting developing nations”.

According to the US State Department, Blinken will meet with Indian government officials and members of civil society "to reaffirm our strong partnership."

However, Assistant Secretary of State Donald Lu told reporters on 24 February that if Blinken attempts to persuade India and the Central Asian countries to align more closely with the United States regarding the Ukraine conflict, it may not be straightforward because these nations have "long and complex" relationships with Russia.

“I don’t think they’re going to end those relations anytime soon. But we are talking to them about the role that they can play in this conflict,” Lu said, as per The Hindu's report.

“We may not share the same approach every day on Ukraine, but I think we do share the goal that this conflict end, and it end based on principles in the UN Charter,” he went on to add.

As reported by ThePrint, the Russian foreign ministry stated on 23 February that the G20 is a "key forum for global governance", confirming Lavrov's attendance.

The ministry also indicated that the need for diplomatic dialogue through the G20 has increased in the face of escalating tensions in international relations, rising risks to the global economy, and what it calls the Western political regimes' de facto bullying.

In July of last year, Lavrov exited a G20 foreign ministers' gathering in Bali, Indonesia, following the West's strong condemnation of the Ukraine conflict.

𝗪𝗵𝗲𝗻 𝗕𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗸𝗲𝗻 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗟𝗮𝘃𝗿𝗼𝘃 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗺𝘂𝗻𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗹𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲

Blinken communicated with Lavrov for the first time since Russia's incursion into Ukraine in July of 2022.

Back then, Blinken had said that in “a frank and direct conversation”, he “pressed the Kremlin to accept the substantial proposal that we put forth on the release of Paul Whelan and Brittney Griner” – the two Americans who were detained in Russia.

The Ukraine conflict was also discussed during the phone conversation between Blinken and Lavrov.

According to CNN, Blinken cautioned Lavrov that if Russia attempted to annex additional territory in Ukraine, the international community would not recognize the annexation, and that there would be additional significant consequences for Russia.

Reuters reported that Blinken also informed Lavrov that the world anticipated Russia to adhere to the agreement it reached with Ukraine in Turkey to resume grain and fertilizer exports, which had been halted by the conflict, worsening the global food crisis.

Lavrov attributed the problem to US sanctions against Russia.

Lavrov stated that Moscow will complete its "special military operation" in Ukraine, the term Russia employs to describe its invasion.

According to Reuters, the Russian foreign ministry stated that Lavrov informed Blinken that the continuous delivery of US and NATO arms to Ukraine's armed forces "prolongs the agony of the Kyiv government, perpetuates the conflict, and leads to more casualties."

𝗪𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗜𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗮 𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝗯𝗿𝗼𝗸𝗲𝗿 𝗽𝗲𝗮𝗰𝗲 𝗯𝗲𝘁𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗻 𝗨𝗦 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗥𝘂𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗮 ?

Despite the shadow of the Ukraine conflict over the G20 meetings, India is hoping that other issues such as climate change and Third World debt will not be overshadowed, according to Reuters.

An anonymous Indian foreign ministry official stated to Reuters, "India doesn't want Ukraine to overshadow the event, but it will be a top priority."

It is New Delhi’s “intention to continue playing the voice of the Global South and raising issues pertinent to the region,” the official went on to add.

According to a report by the Economic Times (ET), India is working towards narrowing the divide between the West and Russia and also striving to establish a consensus for a joint statement.

According to a report by The Economic Times (ET), India is working towards bridging the gap between the West and Russia, and is attempting to build a consensus on a joint statement by holding discussions with all sides, including significant members of the Global South like South Africa, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, and Argentina, during this week’s foreign ministers’ meeting.

The report added that India has maintained a neutral stance in the Russia-Ukraine war and has resisted Western pressure to condemn Moscow for its actions. Nevertheless, New Delhi has called for dialogue and diplomacy to resolve the conflict repeatedly. Prime Minister Narendra Modi even told Russian President Vladimir Putin that the "era of war" was over on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Samarkand last September.

Anil Wadhwa, a former Indian diplomat and distinguished fellow at New Delhi’s Vivekananda International Foundation, told Reuters: "Differences over the conflict will be played out again at this week’s meeting."

Wadhva further added: “It is unlikely that G20 foreign ministers can agree on common language suggesting ways and mechanisms to deal with the situation in Ukraine."

“The reasons are many but the most important issue is that the situation in Ukraine has become extremely fluid," he said.