Indian Stability In The Midst Of South Asian Chaos

Sri Lanka witnessed a mass uprising against the Rajapaksa government, and the regime was forced to resign in July 2022. Happily, the steady hand of Ranil Wickremesinghe as acting president, the election of Anura Kumara Dissanayake of the left-wing coalition as president in the September 2024 election, and the peaceful transfer of power preserved the constitutional order and restored political stability. But in the process, the major parties were marginalised, and the NPP coalition emerged victorious, reflecting voters’ disenchantment with established parties.

Bangladesh witnessed another uprising against the Sheikh Hasina government in August 2024 that ended in her resignation and the formation of an interim government headed by Muhammad Yunus. Though Sheikh Hasina's leadership accelerated economic growth in the country, her politics of vengeance and the absence of parliamentary opposition led to the uprising. An election is expected to be held in February 2026. Whether it will bring stability and legitimacy to a future government is an open question.

Now Nepal witnessed another youth uprising, forcing the resignation of KP Sharma Oli's coalition government, the dissolution of parliament, and an interim government headed by Sushila Karki, a former chief justice. The interim government announced elections in six months, and we will have to see if the stability, order and legitimacy of the government will be restored.

In Pakistan, Imran Khan's PTI party was denied an election symbol in the February 2024 elections. And yet, despite the repression and alleged large-scale rigging, the PTI-supported independents won most seats. The PML-N and PPP, the second- and third-largest groups, formed a coalition government. The situation is inherently unstable, and the government's legitimacy is questionable, given the circumstances. In any case, the elected government has rarely exercised real authority in Pakistan; the army is in control, and the government merely provides a democratic fig leaf.

In Thailand, too, the army and a group of monarchists wield real power, and the elected government is removed at will. In Myanmar, after decades of heroic struggle, the Aung San Suu Kyi-led government rode to power with a massive mandate. She governed under the shadow of the army. But come the next election, the army again took over direct control and incarcerated political leaders. The nation, under the army rule, is now in the midst of a civil war.

Pakistan, Thailand and Myanmar are facing challenges to democracy because of the role of armed forces, which exercise real power. But Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Nepal are different; elected governments were overthrown by populist anger and street agitations.

The events in Nepal over the past 17 years, since the end of the monarchy, are illustrative of the fragility of nascent democracies if strong institutions, traditions, and practices are not in place. In these 17 years, Nepal has seen 14 governments, including the present interim government. Since the November 2022 general election, there have been five changes of governments in 34 months! The CPN (Maoist Centre), the party headed by Pushpa Kamal Dahal, won only 32 of the 275 seats in the lower house. The CPN (UML), headed by KP Sharma Oli, won 79 seats, and the Nepali Congress, headed by Sher Bahadur Deuba, won 88 seats. Dahal was part of the alliance with the Nepali Congress. And yet, post-election, he ditched his alliance partner and became prime minister with Oli's support. Within three months, in March 2023, he again switched partners and formed the government with the support of the Nepali Congress. Within a year, in March 2024, he again went back to Oli and formed a third government since the election. In July 2024, Oli's CPN (UML) and Deuba's NC formed a coalition government with Oli as prime minister.

This breathtaking cynicism of all major parties and leaders, unstable governments, and the two leading parties forming a government, leaving a vacuum in the opposition, led to a flashpoint very quickly. Sheikh Hasina, too, paid the price by crushing the opposition. If people cannot ventilate grievances through opposition parties and peaceful protests, the anger and frustration can easily boil over and topple the regime or even the constitutional order itself.

When brazen corruption and unbridled lust for power and position, without purpose, are manifest, popular anger can be easily aroused. The greatest asset for a government is not merely legislative numbers; it is the credibility and public trust that the government leaders enjoy.

Given these convulsions, some people wonder if India will be rocked by such political convulsions. The conditions in India are markedly different. We are a robust democracy with intense electoral competition, fair elections, political freedoms, peaceful transfer of power and respect for electoral verdicts. Elected governments exercise real authority in our country. With all the flaws in our democracy, political parties are always active in mobilising people and ventilating grievances. Governments generally exercise restraint in dealing with agitations. The courts and constitutional authorities enjoy real autonomy and credibility. We established some healthy traditions and practices early on. Our diversity, large size, and true federalism with states coming into their own in the last three decades ensure stability. Governance in India is largely in states, and problems are contained within a state and rarely spill over to other regions. All these ensure stability and legitimacy with a lot of chaos and noise.

But we should not be complacent. Of late, reckless rhetoric questioning the legitimacy of an election whenever a party loses is becoming dangerously common. We need to reform our electoral system to eliminate the role of vast unaccounted money in elections and to make politics hospitable to the best in our society. Our rule of law is weak. Power is too centralised at the state level, and local governments are largely irrelevant. Most Indian workers are in the unorganised sector, with no secure monthly wage. Our growth, while robust, is not inclusive enough. We need to address the challenges of the political and governance reform and inclusive growth.

The author is the founder of Lok Satta movement and Foundation for Democratic Reforms. Email: drjploksatta@gmail.com / Twitter@jp_loksatta