New Delhi: A recent study ‘Weathering the Storm: Managing Monsoons in a Warming Climate’, presented at the International Global-South Climate Risk Symposium in New Delhi highlights the alarming impact of climate change on India’s monsoon patterns and extreme weather events. Major findings indicate that by 2030, eight out of ten districts in India will face increased occurrences of erratic rainfall, correlated with a significant rise in extreme heat incidents.
Abinash Mohanty, from IPE Global, reported a 15-fold increase in extreme heat wave days over the past three decades, with a staggering 19-fold increase in the last decade alone. Monsoon seasons are experiencing prolonged summer-like conditions, disrupted by fewer rainy days.
Mohanty further emphasized that the findings of the study underline a significant climate crisis impacting urban areas severely. The stronger influence of meteorological patterns, such as El Niño and La Niña, is expected to exacerbate climate extremes, resulting in more cyclones, floods, and heat stress events.
The study predicts that 72% of tier-I and tier-II cities will face increased heat stress and extreme rainfall incidents, while ten states, including Gujarat, Rajasthan, and Tamil Nadu, will experience a combination of heat and rainfall extremes.
Forecasts indicate that by 2030, approximately 69% of coastal districts will suffer from intense summer discomfort, escalating to 79% by 2040. Despite the pressing nature of climate risks, Ashwajit Singh from IPE Global underscores the vital link between climate adaptation and socioeconomic development for the Global South.
The findings also suggest that both coastal and inland districts are experiencing unpredictable rainfall in tandem with more severe heat waves, compelling a 63% change in land use patterns under current scenarios. Agendra Kumar of Esri India noted that data-driven, holistic planning is essential for addressing the shifts in climate impacts on livelihoods and infrastructure. The integration of Geographic Information System (GIS) technology can facilitate effective climate-resilient infrastructure planning and disaster response.
The study advocates for risk assessment to be central to India's strategy for combating climate impacts, proposing the establishment of Climate Risk Observatories for precise risk monitoring and management, along with financial instruments to mitigate the effects of extreme weather. Appointing heat-risk champions within district committees is also suggested to enhance coordination in managing heat-related challenges.
