The National Statistical Organisation will release its GDP data for the December quarter along with the advance estimates at 5.30 pm on Friday.
Forecasts predict that the growth rate will pick up to around 4.7% in the third quarter of Financial Year 2019-20 from 4.5% in the quarter ended in September.
Earlier, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman had said that the economy is not in trouble and green shoots are visible with the country moving towards a USD 5 trillion economy.
Here are five things to look out for;
Growth factors in FY21
NSO that is also slated to announce the advance growth estimates will also give us an insight into the GDP growth prospects of the next financial year. Earlier, RBI in its monetary policy statement had pegged GDP growth rate for FY 21 between 5.5-6% in the first half and around 6.2% in the second quarter. RBI had stated that the private consumption, particularly in rural areas, is expected to recover on the back of improved rabi prospects. It also said that the recent hike in food prices will support rural incomes. Further, it added that the easing of global trade uncertainties might possibly encourage exports. However, the coronavirus outbreak may impact tourist arrivals and global trade.
Q3 GDP growth
If India's GDP, that has been sliding for the last six quarters, picks up in Q3, there will be a sign of recovery amid the economic slowdown. Moreover, the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) also shrank by 0.3% in December from 1.8% in November, which could continue to slip and affect the overall growth of the economy.
Nominal GDP Growth rate
What's worth looking out for is the nominal GDP growth rate as it factors in inflation. Fiscal deficit, debt and other macro-indicators are calculated on this basis which are important indicators to gauge the situation of the economy. Earlier, the government projected the nominal GDP growth rate in FY20 to be at 10% but it came down to 7.5% according to the first advance estimates.
Consumption and Investment growth
Consumption and investment growth is something to look out for as it has remained sluggish for till the September quarter. The consumption growth showed a slight improvement in Q2 at 5.1% against 3.1% in Q1.
Investment, however, has been severely hit amid the falling bank credit and the crisis in the NBFC sector. Signifying investment demand in the economy, capital goods shrank for 12 consecutive months till December.
Real estate
It is one of the key sectors where the growth rate has remained sluggish for a while and it is predicted to be the same in the ensuing quarters as well.
