New Delhi, Oct 17: The gold has generated returns of approximately 63 per cent in rupee terms and 53 per cent in dollar terms since last Dhanteras, and a possible rally towards Rs 1.5 lakh per 10 grams is possible by 2026, a report said on Friday.
Ventura Securities Attributes Surge to Fed Policy and Central Bank Buying
Dovish signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve, ETF inflows, and central bank purchases are driving the surge in gold, the report from Ventura Securities said.
Gold Prices Reach Record Highs Since March 2025
Gold prices have skyrocketed since March 2025, rising from $3,000 an ounce to around $4,254. In India, prices increased from Rs 78,840 per 10 grammes on Dhanteras 2024 to Rs 128,200 currently.
Analysts See $5,000 an Ounce Within Reach
“Starting the next rally from Dhanteras 2025, the unchartered territory of $5000 per ounce or Rs 1,50,000 per ten grams could be in 2026,” the report noted.
US Economic Slowdown and Rate Cuts Boosting Gold
N.S. Ramaswamy, Head of Commodities & CRM, Ventura, highlighted rising downside risks to the US labour market warranting rate cuts.
"Due to the delay of economic data (employment and inflation) as the US government is on shutdown mode, focus is on FED Chair Powell who signalled that rising labour market risks justify another rate cut," said Ramaswamy.
The US is increasingly facing the challenge of their debt servicing, with the national debt climbing to $37 trillion, he added.
Debt Concerns and Trade Tensions Add Fuel
Trade tensions between the United States and China escalated as the latter announced tighter export restrictions on rare earth metals and magnets, being the world's largest suppliers of these critical resources.
Meanwhile, the United States has announced an additional 100 per cent tariff on Chinese imports, on top of the existing 30 per cent, which has boosted demand for gold.
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Investor Sentiment Remains Strong
With these tailwinds, gold has had a record run of eight weekly gains. The rise in gold prices is fuelling investor confidence and a strong sense of FOMO, as every pullback is being met with aggressive buying, the report noted.
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