Bhopal (Madhya Pradesh): With barely a week left for the Lok Sabha election results, people have started to speculate on the winners and losers.
And when a state like Madhya Pradesh is in the fray, the tribal population plays an important role in deciding the direction of the winning wave.
The ruling party BJP has footed its councillor, Bharti Pardhi, in tribal-dominated Balaghat. On the other hand, Congress pitted Samrat Saraswat. Both candidates give each other a tough political battle.
New VS New
Continuing the trend, the BJP dropped their sitting MP, Dhal Singh Bisen, to pit fresh councillor Bharti Pardhi. This move sent shockwaves through the constituency and the party, as Balaghat is considered Bisen's home turf.
Congress' Samrat Saraswat, too, is a new candidate, and it is safe to say that the seat will witness some fierce political fights.
Though Balaghat is considered a BJP stronghold, no MP has served twice in this constituency. At least, that's what the data from the past 15 years suggests.
What does the data say?
2019 Lok Sabha
After snatching power from Congress' Vishveshwar Bhagat in '98, the BJP has ruled the constituency since. In 2019, BJP stalwart Dhal Singh Bisen won the election against INC's Madhu Bhagat with a margin of 2,40,265 votes.
2019 also saw a rise in the voter count in regards to the 2014 Lok Sabha Election.
2014 Lok Sabha
The BJP was confident in the 2014 edition of the election due to their continuous hold of power in this constituency. INC's Hina Likhiram Kawre faced defeat against the ruling party's Bodh Singh Bhagat with a margin of 94,941 votes.
Voter data and analysis
According to the data, Balaghat houses approximately 17 lakh eligible electors. Out of these 17 lakh electors, around 13 lakh people exercised their franchise in the 2019 Lok Sabha Election rising the voter turnout to 77.3%, marking a 10% rise since 2014 election.
The gender split here is also near equal. Balaghat is known for a healthy sex ratio with 1021 women for every 1000 men. In the Assembly elections in 2023, more women turned up to vote than men.
What do opinion polls say?
Balaghat has always been a BJP stronghold, but will their decision to remove Bisen and field a new face will change their fate? This feeling is mildly soothed by the fact that the INC candidate is also a debutant.
Despite a brutal political battle, India TV CNX opinion polls give all 29 seats to the ruling party.
