Will The BJP Implode Due To Its Own Contradictions & Pressures?

Will The BJP Implode Due To Its Own Contradictions & Pressures?

The BJP central leadership is caught in a bind, unable to look the cadres in the eye because of the party’s shameful poll performance

Neelu VyasUpdated: Wednesday, July 17, 2024, 11:19 PM IST
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Uttar Pradesh Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Prasad Maurya shared a cryptic post on X (formerly Twitter) on Wednesday, causing a flutter in state politics amid his speculated rift with CM Yogi Adityanath. In his post, Keshav Prasad Maurya spoke about the “pain of the workers” and how “organisation” is bigger than the government. “The organisation is bigger than the government, the pain of the workers is my pain. No one is bigger than the organisation, the workers are the pride,” the office of UP deputy CM quoted Keshav Maurya as saying in an X post. This post comes a day after Maurya met with Union minister and BJP president JP Nadda in New Delhi. Notably, JP Nadda held a separate meeting with Uttar Pradesh BJP chief Bhupender Chaudhary. The meetings were held to map out the party’s strategy after the BJP’s poor performance in UP in the Lok Sabha election. After the poll debacle in Uttar Pradesh, there has been strong speculation of a rift between Yogi Adityanath and Keshav Maurya. A number of BJP leaders said in private conversations that the chief minister’s working style is one of the reasons behind the party’s loss in the state.

So is the BJP’s central leadership mulling over making Yogi the scapegoat? It’s an opportunity for which Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah have long been waiting, but it won’t be easy for them to axe Yogi, as questions will equally be asked of Modi and Shah, who played a prominent role in ticket distribution. What is being learnt through sources is that Keshav Maurya might put in his papers, and this could be followed by a few more resignations of NDA allies as well, on the grounds that Yogi’s working style and his over-dependence on bureaucrats is problematic. This is part of the grapevine; but on condition of anonymity a few BJP leaders did point out that major structural changes could be ushered in as far as Uttar Pradesh is concerned, and Yogi might be pressured into stepping down, but this is only likely after the forthcoming by-elections to 10 Vidhan Sabha seats in UP.

At a BJP working committee meeting on June 14, Yogi Adityanath said that overconfidence had hurt the party’s expectations in the state. “We have to hoist the BJP flag in the state once again. BJP leaders and workers will have to be super active on social media and immediately refute any kind of rumours,” he said.

Will Yogi agree to come to the Centre? There is a big question mark on that, but if he is removed, his supporters and fan base could cause trouble in the state. So the BJP central leadership is caught in a bind. Modi and Shah know for sure that they do not have the moral courage to look the cadres in the eye because of the shameful poll performance. There were almost 50 seats for which Shah had decided candidates, to the extent that he did not listen to the state leaders, and the consequence was that most of the leaders picked by Shah have miserably lost. BJP workers at the cadre level do not know where to start from, as on the ground the BJP has lost its narrative. The Hindutva card doesnt seem to be working; polarisation too has lost its grip. So the BJP looks rudderless and leaderless at this moment.

UP’s defeat is showing a trickle-down effect in other states. In West Bengal BJP’s Suvendu Adhikari has started saying that he will not follow “sabka sath sabka vikas” and that he will help only those who help him. The BJP unit in West Bengal is in a state of shambles with many deciding to join the Trinamool Congress. The Rajasthan unit too has similar whispers. The BJP rank and file not happy in the desert state with the style of working of CM Bhajan Lal Sharma. Kirodi Lal Meena the state agriculture minister, has already resigned. Coming to Maharashtra where Assembly elections are due in October, the BJP doesn’t know how and from where it will pick up its thread and momentum. All is not well with the allies of the NDA, and murmurs of resentment are very strong with Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena and the NCP Ajit Pawar faction.

All this is happening because problems are not being addressed at the root. Band-Aid treatment at this stage will not work. Modi and Shah till date have not held the BJP Parliamentary party meeting. Sources say they are scared of the voices of dissent which are brewing within the party. Why are Modi and Shah not ready to see the writing on the wall? Will the BJP crumble under its own pressure? The jury is out on that.

Neelu Vyas is a senior television anchor and digital content creator. Twitter: @neeluopines

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