For over a fortnight, the regional media in Maharashtra, especially news channels, have been speculating whether the estranged Thackeray cousins, Uddhav and Raj, are likely to come together to fight the upcoming polls of Mumbai, Thane and other municipalities.
In the age of social media, this speculation and the videos showing on various media platforms, explaining how this unification is perhaps possible, have gone viral all over the state, and every citizen interested in the political developments is now talking about it.
A similar speculation has been about the possibility of the two factions of the Nationalist Congress Party, or NCP, coming together in the near future after NCP founder Sharad Pawar was heard saying that the decision on the same was to be taken by party MP Supriya Sule as he was planning on becoming inactive soon.
Discussions are on in Maharashtra’s political sphere about whether the Thackeray cousins and the Pawar uncle and nephew would be joining hands, and will the BJP, which seems totally in control of the political scenario in the state, really allow this to happen?
It is now obvious that after the direction from the Supreme Court, the civic polls in over a dozen Municipal Corporations in Maharashtra, including Mumbai, Navi Mumbai, Thane, Pune, etc., will be held just after the monsoon season.
Along with this, polls in over 25 district councils or zilla parishads will also be held. This makes the upcoming elections look like a mini assembly poll. The BJP is very eager to take control of most of the local self-government bodies, especially the Mumbai, Pune, Nagpur, and Pimpri Chinchwad municipal corporations, as they are the building blocks of the future state assembly polls, and these bodies are cash-rich.
For Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena as well as Raj Thackeray's Maharashtra Navnirman Sena, this is a 'make or break' situation, as both thrive only on the political and financial power they draw from these municipalities.
Hectic speculation started over a month ago when the MNS Chief, Raj Thackeray, indicated in a video interview given to actor-director Mahesh Manjrekar that he was open to joining hands with Uddhav, provided certain conditions were met, and stated that for the benefit of Maharashtra, both cousins should unite.
Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena responded, saying they were willing to take the necessary steps if conditions were met. Subsequently, many leaders from both sides, including party spokespersons, were seen and heard speaking with various media channels, especially regional news channels in Maharashtra, about the possibility of coming together.
The news attracted the highest viewership even on various OTT platforms. But is the talk real? Can the Thackeray cousins walk the talk? These are some of the questions that political observers are now asking.
Raj Thackeray walked away from the Shiv Sena and formed his own party, MNS, in 2006. In the past 19 years, his agenda has been mainly to cause a split in Uddhav’s vote bank. In this bargain, Raj was once close to Sharad Pawar's NCP during the 2019 polls when Uddhav was part of the BJP-led NDA alliance. Later, he shifted his support to the BJP during the 2024 polls when he realised Uddhav was against it.
So, the rivalry between Raj and Uddhav has not just been political but also very much personal. Moreover, the BJP, which now wants to defeat Uddhav in his bastion of Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation, or the BMC, knows that the party will benefit if Raj and Uddhav remain divided. Thus, the BJP will ensure that the two do not come together.
Moreover, most insiders believe that there is no way the cousins will come together; however, they do keep talking about the possibility, as they don't want the voters to get an impression that either of them is opposed to the idea of a unified Shiv Sena.
The scene with the Pawar clan is exactly the opposite. The NCP founder, Sharad Pawar, is now facing challenges he had never faced earlier. His number in the state assembly is down to 10, the lowest ever in decades. His estranged nephew, Ajit Pawar, who is now state Deputy Chief Minister and controls the finance department, is in a commanding position with 41 MLAs in the state assembly.
The NCP was founded on June 10, 1999, and came to power within months of it getting established and remained in power for over 14 years (three assembly terms). Now there is demand from within the party to unite both factions.
Party patriarch Sharad Pawar, perhaps, feels that there is no chance of being in power till the next assembly polls and is concerned about the political future of his daughter, Lok Sabha MP Supriya Sule, and some of his trusted colleagues.
The NCP insiders say that the senior Pawar thinks it would be mutually beneficial if both factions of the NCP merge and fight the upcoming polls in Pune and Pimpri-Chinchwad as a united force.
The NCP draws its power mainly from its district satraps in western Maharashtra and the Marathwada region. Pune and Pimpri-Chinchwad Municipal Corporation, as well as all district councils or zilla parishads in western Maharashtra, are NCP's home turf; the Pawars do not want a split in their ranks in these local self-government bodies.
An important aspect of this is that the BJP-led NDA, or Mahayuti, would benefit in the upcoming polls if the Pawars unite, as it would obviously weaken the opposition MVA, or Maha Vikas Aghadi, alliance.
So, the BJP will not restrict their alliance partner Ajit Pawar if he agrees to this unification. In all probability, the unification of two NCP factions may eventually happen in the long term, but the Thackeray cousins uniting will mostly remain a distant dream for their supporters.
(Rohit Chandavarkar is a senior journalist who has worked for 31 years with various leading newspaper brands and television channels in Mumbai and Pune.)
