Central minister Chirag Paswan has thrown the proverbial spanner in Bihar politics by expressing his desire to contest the fast-approaching state Legislative Assembly elections. He has, however, explained that a final decision in this regard will be taken by his party, the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas).
The LJP(RV) chief’s announcement might appear bewildering at first glance. Why would a central minister give up his post to become an MLA when it has already been made clear, and Paswan himself has confirmed, that the ruling NDA would go to polls under the incumbent chief minister Nitish Kumar’s leadership? And here lies the catch.
The BJP, which is now the largest constituent of the NDA in Bihar, has not categorically stated that Nitish Kumar will be their chief ministerial candidate. This deliberate ambiguity leaves the doors ajar for various post-poll possibilities.
Paswan is no longer an inexperienced leader who would take an off-the-cuff decision without examining its pros and cons. He is now 42, a third-term MP, and has displayed his maturity by making up with Nitish Kumar, a close friend of his late father, Ram Vilas Paswan. Barely five years ago, Chirag Paswan walked out of the NDA, saying Nitish Kumar’s continuation as the chief minister was unacceptable to him.
Paswan took a bizarre decision to field candidates of his party against Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) while extending support to the BJP. The LJP contested 135 seats, won just one, and witnessed its near-total marginalisation after his uncle, Pashupati Kumar Paras, revolted and walked away with five LJP MPs, a ministerial berth at the centre, and virtually the entire party organisation. Paswan had to rebuild the party from scratch, which he has done admirably.
Ram Vilas Paswan had once famously said that his son was a future star who would go beyond him in politics. There is absolutely no doubt that Paswan expressing his interest in contesting Bihar elections, whether this year or in 2030, was part of his long-term strategy to gradually move closer to realising his chief ministerial ambitions, a post that had eluded his illustrious father.
There is no guarantee that Nitish Kumar will become the chief minister once again, and even if he does, there’s no guarantee how long he will stay in the post given his declining health and the frequent memory lapses he displays in public forums. The only remaining question is whether the BJP will let Paswan become the chief minister when the party is working under a well-calibrated plan to strengthen its base in Bihar.
No doubt, the BJP lacks a leader with Chirag Paswan’s appeal in its ranks. There are persistent allegations that he had been acting at the behest of the BJP when he set out to weaken Nitish Kumar in the 2020 assembly polls. Political analysts noted that the LJP robbed the JD(U) of victory in at least 25 constituencies where the votes polled by it were higher than the victory margin of the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan.
If Chirag Paswan decides to contest the upcoming Bihar elections, it might open up a mouth-watering prospect in Bihar. The 2025 polls might witness the surge of three young leaders vying for the chief minister’s post: RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav (35), Chirag Paswan (42) and the Jan Suraaj party chief, Prashant Kishor (49). While Chirag and Prashant have not openly declared their chief ministerial ambitions, there is no secret that, given an opportunity, they would lap it up without hesitation.
Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj party did not fare well in the four assembly by-polls held late last year, but he cannot be wished away by his rivals. As India’s most talked-about and most sought-after election strategist, Prashant Kishor must have plans of his own to make an impact in Bihar politics.
A bit of his strategy often reflects in his public speeches when he takes on Nitish Kumar and the father-son duo of Lalu Prasad Yadav and Tejashwi Yadav. Significantly, he rarely talks against the BJP and has never criticised Chirag Paswan in his public utterances.
This opens up various interesting possibilities, including new permutations and combinations that could come into play during government formation in Bihar, particularly in case neither of the two major alliances gets a clear majority and the state elects a hung Assembly.
In case any of these three younger generation leaders becomes the chief minister, it is almost certain that Bihar may not remain a dry state in the post-Nitish Kumar era. All of them strongly feel that the state is being denied a genuine source of revenue that could be utilised for the betterment of its infrastructure and social development.
The only major achievement of Nitish Kumar, the longest-serving Bihar chief minister, is that he had successfully taken Bihar out of the Jungle Raj days of the RJD rule. However, Bihar continues to be one of the poorest and least developed states, with no signs of industrialisation that could trigger economic growth.
One may have to wait until early November when the election results are announced and the future shape of Bihar politics starts unfolding in earnest.
Ajay Jha is a senior journalist, author and political commentator.
