If there is one subject that is being discussed in Maharashtra this week in every political party, among observers and the media, it is about the ongoing cold war between Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis and Deputy Chief Minister Eknath Shinde. Even the national media is taking note of this cold war, which was not at all expected by anybody because the two leaders shared such great chemistry just months ago.
It would be interesting to see how this cold war originated and where it is headed. Last week, the Maharashtra home ministry, headed by Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, decided to withdraw the Y category security provided to all MLAs of Eknath Shinde. There was major resentment inside the Shiv Sena when this decision was announced and the regional media took up the subject majorly. But this was not the only thing that upset Shinde.
There were many other decisions related to financial allotments announced by Shinde in the previous regime that were changed by the Fadnavis government in the past few days. CM Fadnavis and Shinde reached such a level of disagreement in the past weeks that the Union home minister, Amit Shah, had to hold a meeting with both the leaders in Pune in the late hours to find some solution to this crisis.
At the root of the dispute between Fadnavis and Shinde is the clash over who should lead the government in Maharashtra. The BJP led Mahayuti alliance had announced openly that the 2024 election to the Maharashtra Vidhan Sabha was being fought under Eknath Shinde’s leadership. The election happened against the backdrop of lok sabha polls, where the Mahayuti failed badly to achieve a good score. Leaders of the BJP did not have the confidence that they would do well in the assembly polls, and, hence, they decided that elections should be fought under it and not Shinde’s leadership, who happens to be a Maratha face.
The Mahayuti did unexpectedly well in the state assembly elections, and post elections, Eknath Shinde started stressing that he wanted to be the chief minister of Maharashtra again. But the BJP had other ideas. The BJP had scored very well and got 132 seats in the assembly, so there was no question of them letting any other alliance partner take the chief ministerial post.
Devendra Fadnavis was sworn in as chief minister, and that is where the rift between Fadnavis and Shinde started. The whole issue is related to the personality and attitude of a politician. There have been many examples in politics where a particular leader has gotten into a compromise, at some stage, and decided to take the backseat. But Eknath Shinde’s personality doesn’t reflect that. He feels that after serving as the chief minister of the state for two and a half years, it is difficult for him to accept a secondary position now and continue in the government, especially with the BJP calling the shots all the time.
There are many leaders who have accepted positions, but they have also accepted the fact that they may have to be submissive in the overall power structure. But Shinde is not that type. He feels that he should also get a fair degree of authority in the decision-making of the Maharashtra government. That is where the clash began between Fadanvis and Shinde. The second factor is related to the BJP’s aggression. Ever since the BJP got a clear majority in the Maharashtra assembly in the 2014 polls, the party has insisted on its 100% BJP agenda. Not just in Maharashtra, but in many other states, the party has strategically marginalised its alliance partners over time and taken a lead role in the government. The BJP wants to do the same thing in Maharashtra.
Shinde, being the mentally strong and wise politician that he is, realises that his party and his leaders are getting marginalised in the BJP-dominated Mahayuti. That’s the reason for the clash we see happening. Another interesting factor is to see the BJP’s strategy of promoting Ajit Pawar. The BJP has systematically decided to empower Ajit Pawar to show that he can be used to counter Eknath Shinde. The BJP has 132 seats in the assembly, Eknath Shinde has 57 seats and Ajit Pawar has 41 seats. Now the BJP is giving an indirect signal to Eknath Shinde that their own 132 MLAs and Ajit Pawar’s 41 MLAs are enough for the party to run the government for the next 5 years, so the alliance does not need Eknath Shinde in order to survive.
The big question now is which way this whole thing is headed? It is obvious that Shinde is not in a position right now to do anything drastic. He will not walk out of the Mahayuti alliance or do anything openly to show his resentment. But the big upcoming game is the elections to the all-important 12/14 municipal councils and over 25 district councils or zilla parishad polls, which may be a few months away. In these elections, all parties will again test their strength on the ground.
The BJP, right now, insists that it wants to fight the Mumbai municipal polls on its own strength, without an alliance, but many things are currently fluid, and no final decision has been taken on any alliance within the Mahayuti. Fadnavis has announced that the BJP plans to fight the BMC, or BrihanMumbai Municipal Corporation, polls as Mahayuti, but the current cold war brewing between Fadnavis and Shinde suggests that there are many questions over whether this will really happen!
Rohit Chandavarkar is a senior journalist who has worked for 31 years with various leading newspaper brands and television channels in Mumbai and Pune.
