Currently, all the political groups stemming from Balasaheb Thackeray's Shiv Sena seem to be in the grip of uncertainty and tension in Maharashtra, be it the Shiv Sena led by Deputy CM Eknath Shinde, Shiv Sena (UBT) led by Uddhav Thackeray, or the MNS (Maharashtra Navnirman Sena) led by Raj Thackeray. There is a lot of churning and rethinking as well as course correction happening among these parties. Eknath Shinde was seen leaving for New Delhi again in the first half of this week to meet Union Home Minister Amit Shah to discuss some crucial issues.
The buzz in Mumbai's political circles was, “Why is Maharashtra's Deputy CM making so many trips to the national capital? What is he discussing with the BJP high command? And whether his ministers will face some action in the coming days. Some are also wondering whether these trips are to discuss the emerging situation after the Supreme Court delivers the judgement on the validity of the election symbol given to Shinde's party by the Election Commission of India (ECI) and the possible decision over the disqualification of Shinde's MLAs.
That there has been some internal conflict between the constituents of the Mahayuti alliance in Maharashtra is known to all. The BJP, with its own 132 MLAs in the House and with the support of an additional five MLAs, is now dictating terms over fund allocation as well as other issues of prerogative. An open conflict was seen between the members of the BJP and those of Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena. Last week a minister from the Shinde camp, Sanjay Shirsat, objected to deputy minister (MoS) Madhuri Misal, of the BJP, holding meetings with the officials of his department and taking some decisions in his absence.
CM Devendra Fadnavis openly came in support of Madhuri Misal and declared that Misal was well within her rights to hold such a meeting and take decisions. This is just the tip of the iceberg. The general impression seems to be that the BJP is not letting any opportunity go to corner Shinde or his leaders or to signal that they perhaps do not need him anymore, like the way they did between 2022 and 2024.
On Tuesday, there was buzz at the state headquarters, Mantralaya, in Mumbai that Eknath Shinde is again headed to New Delhi to meet the BJP top brass to discuss some issues. This will be his sixth visit to New Delhi in the past three weeks. Everybody at Mantralaya is wondering what exactly is happening between the BJP and Shinde? That the BJP leadership has expressed deep displeasure over Shinde's ministers getting into various controversial things in the past month or so is obvious. It seems to have made clear that the way Manikrao Kokate, cabinet minister from NCP, faced action when his portfolio was changed by the government, ministers of the Shinde camp may also face some action.
This has brought in a lot of restlessness in the Shinde camp. Moreover, the uncertainty over the Supreme Court decision regarding the plea on the election symbol being given to Eknath Shinde's party has added to the anxiety in the Shinde camp. This is important because the big question will be whether the Shiv Sena led by Eknath Shinde will be able to use the traditional Sena symbol of "Bow & Arrow" in the upcoming civic polls in Maharashtra.
While this uncertainty inside the Shiv Sena led by Shinde is very evident, on the other side of the political divide, in the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT), there is a different type of uncertainty. The speculation about Uddhav Thackeray and his estranged cousin, MNS leader Raj Thackeray, forming some kind of an alliance ahead of the Mumbai, Thane, and Navi Mumbai civic polls is again rife! Though many political observers have said repeatedly that the possibility of the Thackeray cousins uniting politically is remote, there were again some indications from the MNS side of such a possibility being open when Raj Thackeray visited Uddhav’s residence on his birthday.
This was the second time Uddhav and Raj met each other in a span of six weeks, giving rise to speculation that both the parties were working towards some kind of a political alliance. To add to this, Raj Thackeray was heard at a public event of his party held at the Rangsharda auditorium at Bandra in Mumbai saying that he thought party members from both sides should not have a problem uniting forces if he and his estranged brothers could forget differences and come together after a gap of 20 years! This made big headlines in the Marathi regional media and threw open the prospect of a political unification of the Thackeray cousins.
All this has again brought in a certain amount of uncertainty regarding the future of Maharashtra politics in the coming weeks. Will the BJP decide to go for seat-sharing in the upcoming civic polls of Mumbai, Thane, Pune and Navi Mumbai? Will the Thackeray cousins really cut some seat-sharing deal between the Shiv Sena (UBT) and MNS? There are more questions than answers in the political sphere of Maharashtra right now and some new element of suspense in the air!
Rohit Chandavarkar is a senior journalist who has worked for 31 years with various leading newspaper brands and television channels in Mumbai and Pune.
