Shiv Sena (UBT) likely to go solo in BMC elections like Congress as MVA faces disunity

Though the BMC elections are just a few months away, the Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA) has not been able to put up a united face. While the Congress had earlier said that the party is contemplating going solo in the election, now the Shiv Sena (UBT) too has toed the same line.

Officially, the Shiv Sena (UBT) is in favor of contesting the BMC elections in alliance with the NCP and the Congress. However, some of its leaders appear to have been insisting that the party should go solo in the ensuing corporation elections. They feel that contesting the election in alliance with other parties might hamper the Shiv Sena (UBT)'s chances.

Preliminary Preparations Initiated for October Elections

After Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis made it clear last month that the local body elections across the state may be conducted in October, all the political parties have initiated preliminary preparations for the election. The Shiv Sena (UBT) had been planning to cross the mark of 100 seats in the 227-member house, but doubts have emerged within the party.

Identifying Mumbai's Distinct Voter Groups: Marathi, Hindutva, Dalit-Muslim

Electorate in Mumbai have three distinct voter groups that can be identified along ideological lines: Marathi, Hindutva, and Dalit-Muslim. The Shiv Sena had always been banking primarily on the first two voter groups. However, some party leaders believe that the target voter groups of the Shiv Sena (UBT), NCP, and Congress are completely different and may not vote cohesively even if the parties decide to contest the election as an alliance.

Shiv Sena's Past Experiments with Voter Groups and Alliance Failures

The Shiv Sena had previously attempted to make inroads into the Muslim voter group and form alliances with other parties. However, these experiments failed, and party workers are reluctant to pursue another such alliance this time.

MVA Alliance's Confidence in Keeping Vote Banks Intact Determines Strategy

The BJP had been heavily banking on the Hindutva voter group, while the Marathi voter group is divided between the Shiv Sena and the MNS. If the MVA alliance partners feel confident that they will be able to keep their vote banks intact and may improve upon them, the parties will decide to form the alliance. Otherwise, they may choose to contest separately. The final strategy will depend on their assessment of voter dynamics and chances of success.