Tamil Nadu Lok Sabha Elections 2024: BJP Vote Share Doubles But No Seat In Sight

Chennai: Exit polls predicted that the BJP would make inroads into Tamil Nadu’s political landscape by winning at least 2-3 seats in the state. But as 2024 Lok Sabha election results showed, the wait to win a seat in the Dravidan state is going to be longer. The party launched Annamalai, a former IPS officer, as the state BJP chief and fielded him from the Coimbatore parliamentary seat. However, the exit polls fell short, and in a surprising turn of events, the BJP did not secure any seats in the state. Annamalai, lost to Ganapathy Rajkumar from the DMK under the INDIA bloc. 

BJP Alliance

This time, the BJP formed an alliance with smaller parties like Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK), Tamil Maanila Congress (TMC), Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK), and others. In 2019, the AIADMK broke away from the BJP-led NDA and contested the elections alone, also forming alliances with smaller parties.

In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections BJP fielded 23 candidates across the state. The party fielded its candidates from 19 constituencies and having its allies contest the remaining four under the lotus symbol. But did not win a single seat. However, the party performed better than Congress by improving its vote share from 3.38 per cent in the 2019 general elections to 11 per cent in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. This significant increase in vote share could help the BJP in the upcoming 2026 Tamil Nadu Assembly Elections.

Past Poll Data

In the 2021 Tamil Nadu Assembly election, BJP marked significant gains by securing at least four seats under NDA, with AIADMK as its major ally. The party had failed to open its account in the 2016 assembly elections.

In the 2014 general elections, Tamil Nadu saw a landslide victory by the AIADMK under J. Jayalalithaa's leadership, where the AIADMK won 37 out of 39 seats. The remaining two seats were won by the BJP and its ally PMK. This victory wiped out the DMK in the state, while the BJP made significant gains by securing 5.5 per cent of the vote share.

In 2019, AIADMK and BJP contested the election together as an alliance but failed to secure any seats, with Edappadi K. Palaniswami of the AIADMK being the only win for the alliance. The DMK achieved a clean sweep in 2019. As a result of DMK's success, BJP's vote share decreased from 5.5 per cent in 2014 to 3.66 per cent in 2019.

In this year’s election, in 10 constituencies, the BJP pushed the AIADMK to the third spot as they emerged as runner-up.

However, the only silver lining for the BJP in the state is its increasing popularity and vote share. The BJP’s vote share jumped to 11.24 per cent from 3.66 per cent in 2019, marking a significant gain. This is also more than the Congress’ 10.67 per cent vote share. In the assembly polls, the BJP's vote share fell from 2.86 per cent in the 2016 assembly election to 2.62 per cent in the 2021 assembly elections.

The BJP is expected to increase its foothold in the coming elections in the state.