New Delhi’s Suspension Of Indus Treaty Data-Sharing Escalates Tensions; Islamabad Signals Harsh Retaliation

New Delhi: Pakistan’s strong response to any possible action by India on the Indus Water Treaty shows how deeply sensitive the matter is for Islamabad. A former Indian envoy to Pakistan stated that New Delhi’s actions should be seen as a “psychological ratcheting up of pressure” against Pakistan. “

The treaty has been in limbo for some time and India has asked for its revision several times. What impact could it have on the ground remains to be seen,” he said.

The other point to note here was that India would not be able to fully end the treaty even if it wanted to. Former Indian envoy to Pakistan Ajay Bisaria told The Free Press Journal that it needed to be noted that the treaty remains in abeyance (suspension) which was not the same as a formal abrogation or annulment of the treaty.

“In the short term what this would mean is that we would stop sharing data. We could also increase the existing storage for the eastern rivers (India has unlimited access to the Ravi, Beas and Sutlej whereas Pakistan has access to the Western rivers of Indus, Chenab, Jhelum) more than the treaty allows. However, we cannot increase the storage at present immediately as we haven’t built the dams that can store more. So operationally in the short term, little will change but if we build dams and canals then, yes, it will make an impact.”

Ambassador Bisaria pointed out that India’s inability to take concrete action on the IWT did not mean the threat from Islamabad was any less. “Let us note the language here. They did not just say an act of war. They said an act of war with a full-spectrum response, which means the nuclear option is also on the table. This strong statement by Islamabad shows how vulnerable it is feeling. They feel that India can control the water and therefore control their destiny. So that is why they have gone out of their way to say that all agreements between the two countries are off the table, including Simla.”

The IWT remains a major bone of contention between India and Pakistan with analysts stating the other measures taken so far by both countries have remained largely symbolic. An exception to this is the closing of Pakistani airspace to India. As another former envoy to Pakistan pointed out on the condition on anonymity, what this meant was that Indian carriers traveling west would now have to lengthen their routes by coming around via the Arabian Sea.

“The fallout, however, would run both ways because under international aviation rules, Pakistan would have to stop all flights, not just Indian flights, coming from the east. This would result in a major loss for Pakistan,” he said

Asked about the possible options India had to reduce tensions, another senior envoy who did not want to be named stated that options for diplomacy were not on the table. “In the past, military attaches from both nations had played a role in backchannel diplomacy. But the prime minister’s strong words, along with Islamabad’s response, has hardened attitudes in both countries, thereby ensuring talks are futile at this point.” Ambassador Bisaria agreed and added that he believed there was no option for India but to do a stronger kinetic response.