Climate Shocks Drive Up Kitchen Staples, Fueling Food Inflation In India

Extreme weather events linked to climate change are hitting Indian kitchens hard, with tomatoes, onions and potatoes emerging as the biggest drivers of food inflation. These short-duration crops, known for their perishability, are especially vulnerable to erratic rains, heatwaves, cyclones and hailstorms. When crops fail in the fields or rot in storage, the prices of these staples soar, sparking inflation that quickly ripples through households across the country.

Kitchen Staples

India’s reliance on the southwest monsoon makes its agriculture particularly fragile. With nearly 65 percent of cropped land unirrigated, farmers depend heavily on seasonal rainfall. A Reserve Bank of India study found that even minor shifts in weather have immediate effects: rainfall changes can raise vegetable inflation by about 1.24 percentage points, while temperature fluctuations can add 1.30 points.

The strain is equally visible in urban kitchens. In Lucknow, homemaker Sunita Yadav said she was forced to cut down on fresh vegetables when tomato prices hit record highs last year. “I used to buy two kilos of tomatoes every week. When the price crossed ₹100, I stopped using them in daily cooking. My children complained that even simple dal tasted different without the tomato tadka. But what choice did I have?” she said.

Recent years have shown how quickly weather shocks turn into food price crises. After several years of relatively stable food prices post-2014, inflation spiked in 2019–20 when unseasonal rains damaged onion crops in Maharashtra, Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh. Potato farmers in Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal also suffered losses due to cyclones and excess rainfall. The pandemic disrupted supply chains further, and the Russia-Ukraine war added to global price pressures. Just as markets began to recover, erratic rains and extreme heat in 2023 and 2024 delivered fresh shocks.

Erratic Rainfall

Tomatoes were the first to take the hit last year. Torrential rains in Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka caused double-digit declines in production, sending prices at Delhi’s Azadpur Mandi soaring from ₹18 a kilo in June to ₹67. Onions followed, with unseasonal rain and hailstorms slashing Maharashtra’s output by nearly 30 percent and pushing retail prices to ₹39 a kilo by November. Potatoes fared no better. Unseasonal rains in West Bengal and frost in Uttar Pradesh cut harvests by about 7 percent, keeping prices high into 2024.

The broader inflationary impact has been severe. Consumer food price inflation peaked at 11.5 percent in July 2023 and remained elevated at 10.87 percent in October 2024. Vegetable inflation rose even more sharply, reflecting how closely household budgets are tied to these three staples.

“The connection between climate and the kitchen is now brutally clear. A hotter atmosphere holds more moisture, leading to cloudbursts and crop damage. A prolonged dry spell shrivels grains and wilts vegetables. Every swing shows up not just in the farmer’s field but in the consumer’s pocket,” said Raja Bhaiya, convener of Vidya Dham Samiti, an NGO in Banda.

Heatwaves

The weather story is even starker. India recorded extreme weather on 93 percent of days in the first nine months of 2024. Heatwaves, made thirty times more intense by climate change according to international studies, scorched crops across large parts of the country. Rainfall has become erratic, with a three-fold increase in extreme events over central India in the past four decades due to warming in the Arabian Sea. Scientists warn that the moisture-holding capacity of the atmosphere is rising with global warming, making heavy downpours both more frequent and more destructive.

“Climate change has made India’s weather patterns erratic, leading to an exponential rise in the frequency and intensity of disasters. Spells of heatwaves are more intense and prolonged, while rainfall patterns are erratic marked by extremely heavy rainfall in shorter duration and longer dry spells. Agriculture is the primary victim of these events,” said Mahesh Palawat, Vice President of Meteorology and Climate Change at Skymet Weather. He added that rising temperatures cause soil moisture loss, shrivelled grains, flower drop and heat stress, all of which reduce yields and threaten food security.

Cyclones & Hailstorms

The risks extend beyond India. A UN-led IPCC report warns that between 15 and 40 percent of land currently used for rainfed rice could become unsuitable by 2050. Pests and diseases are expected to spread to new regions, compounding losses. For India, the world’s second-largest producer of fruits and vegetables, the challenge is especially grave because most supply comes from small and marginal farmers who lack the resources to adapt to climate shocks.

Experts stress the need for immediate solutions. Climate-resilient crop varieties, greenhouse farming, cold storage facilities and better supply chain systems are some of the steps being discussed. Weather-based forecasting, crop insurance and stronger nutrition safety nets could also cushion vulnerable households against sudden price shocks.

Consumer Inflation

For now, however, the link between climate change and inflation is growing sharper with each passing season. For millions of households already grappling with high living costs, the rising price of everyday staples like tomatoes, onions and potatoes is becoming the most visible reminder of how global warming has entered the kitchen.

“In India, inflation has always had a political price. Rising onion rates have toppled governments in the past. But the new age of climate-driven food inflation is more complex and less predictable. For the average household, it means a daily reminder that climate change is no longer an abstract global debate. It is there on the dining table, served with every meal,” said Shachindra Sharma, an environment activist based in Lucknow.