US Tariffs On Indian Exports: Mixed Impact On Jobs, Economy Braces For Uncertainty

Mumbai: The recent US decision to impose steep tariffs on Indian exports has raised concerns in the job market. While some experts are warning of heavy job losses, others believe India’s domestic demand and new trade deals will help cushion the blow.

Possible Job Losses in Key Sectors

According to R P Yadav, founder and chairman of Genius HRTech, around 2–3 lakh jobs could be at risk if the tariff regime continues beyond six months. Labour-intensive industries such as textiles may lose nearly 1 lakh jobs, while the gems and jewellery sector in Surat and Mumbai could also face severe losses. He warns that MSMEs will suffer the most since they rely heavily on exports.

Other Experts See Limited Impact

On the other hand, TeamLease Services Senior Vice President Balasubramanian Anantha Narayanan believes the fears may be overblown. He says India’s economy is largely driven by domestic consumption, unlike China. Exports to the US are worth USD 87 billion, which is only about 2.2% of India’s GDP. He also highlighted that major sectors like pharma and electronics may not be affected much. With the recent trade pact with the UK and scope for diversifying into other markets, he feels the risks are manageable.

Caution and Cost Control Measures

CIEL HR’s CEO Aditya Mishra, however, notes that the tariff scenario is unsettling for exporters dependent on the US, such as textiles, auto components, leather, gems, and engineering goods. He adds that even industries outside direct tariff impact, like pharmaceuticals, are seeing rising costs due to expensive raw materials. Companies have already started cost-control measures such as freezing hiring, reducing spending, and cutting contract jobs. This will particularly affect shop-floor workers, artisans, sales staff, and small MSMEs.

Uncertainty Ahead

Experts agree that negotiations may take place before tariffs are fully implemented, but uncertainty will continue at least through the third quarter of this financial year. The IT sector and global capability centres (GCCs) are also likely to slow hiring until clarity emerges. If tariffs persist, India’s share in the US market could shrink, creating long-term risks.