Crisis In Pakistan: Flow Of Indus River To Pakistan's Sindh Province Declines Amid India's Stance; Triggers Severe Irrigation Crisis During Kharif Crop Season

The flow of Indus River water to Pakistan's Sindh province has declined amid India's stance that "blood and water cannot flow together." During the kharif crop season, this has triggered a severe irrigation crisis.

The water released on June 16 was just 1.33 lakh cusecs, according to Pakistan's Indus River System Authority (IRSA), down 16.87% from the 1.6 lakh cusecs released on the same day last year. The shortfall is threatening to devastate crop yields and rural incomes while monsoon rains are still at least two weeks away.

Home Minister Amit Shah recently declared, “Indus waters will be taken to Rajasthan’s Ganganagar through canals within three years,” adding that Pakistan would be left “craving for every drop of water.”

The new infrastructure aims to better utilise India’s share under the IWT and reduce surplus flow to Pakistan.

India controls the three eastern rivers, Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej, while Pakistan has rights over the western rivers, which are Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab. The Indus Waters Treaty, brokered by the World Bank in 1960, governs the division of six rivers between the two nations. Though tensions have flared over the years, the treaty had remained intact until this year’s suspension post Pahalgam terror attack.

India’s recent moves mark a significant policy shift. For decades, it did not fully utilise its rights over the western rivers due to the rivers’ natural flow into Pakistan.

To divert excess water from the western rivers to the states of Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan, India is preparing to construct a 113-km-long canal and 12 tunnels . According to officials, the feasibility studies are underway, and the full project could be completed in three years.

The Modi government’s stance “blood and water cannot flow together” has effectively put the decades-old treaty on indefinite hold, creating uncertainty downstream. Heightening the risk of both drought and sudden floods as the situation evolves, Pakistan is now struggling to anticipate water levels without access to data. The water shortage follows India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) after the April 22 terror attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, which killed 26 people. In response, India halted not only water releases but also the routine sharing of hydrological data with Pakistan.