CPI Inflation June 2023: Retail Inflation Rises To A three-Month High Of 4.81%

The data revealed that annual rate of price rise was 19.19 per cent in case of spices, 12.71 per cent in 'cereals and products', 10.53 per cent in 'pulses and products', and 7 per cent in eggs. Fruits too were marginally costlier in June year-on-year.

However, there was a decline in inflation in 'oil and fats' (- 18.12 per cent) and vegetables (-0.93 per cent).

Commenting on the data, Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist, Head - Research and Outreach, ICRA, said the spike in vegetable prices is set to push the CPI inflation to an uncomfortable 5.3-5.5 per cent in July 2023.

"We expect the vegetable price shock to result in the Q2 FY2024 CPI inflation exceeding the (RBI's) Monetary Policy Committee's last forecast of 5.2 per cent.

"Accordingly, we anticipate that the Committee will retain its hawkish tone in August 2023, keep the repo rate unchanged and signal that a pivot to rate cuts remains distant," she said.

Narinder Wadhwa, National President, Commodity Participants Association of India (CPAI), opined that rise in inflation suggests a potential change in the factors influencing consumer prices.

"It may be influenced by various factors such as changes in demand-supply dynamics, fluctuations in global commodity prices, government policies, or other economic factors. The rise in inflation is higher than street's expectations," he said.

The government has tasked the central bank to ensure retail inflation remains at 4 per cent with a margin of 2 per cent on either side.

RBI rates

Last month, the Reserve Bank kept policy rates unchanged at 6.5 per cent and projected retail inflation for the current fiscal to average at 5.1 per cent, with June quarter inflation pegged at 4.6 per cent.

Retail in Rural and Urban regions

The NSO data further showed that inflation was at 4.72 per cent in rural areas and 4.96 per cent in urban India. However, the food inflation was marginally higher than the national average in the rural areas.

The price data are collected from selected 1,114 urban markets and 1,181 villages covering all states and UTs through personal visits by field staff of field operations division of NSO, in the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) on a weekly roster.

According to the government data, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rose to a three-month high of 4.81 percent in June compared to 4.25 percent in May.

India's industrial production (IIP) rose 5.2 percent in May.

The consumer food price Inflation was at 4.49 percent in June compared to 2.91 percent in May.

The rural inflation at 4.2 percent compared to 4.17 percent (MoM) and the Urban Inflation at 4.96 percent compared to 4.27 percent (MoM).

Inflation for food

Inflation for the food basket was at 4.49 percent in June, higher than 2.96 percent in May. The food basket accounts for nearly half of the CPI.