US-Iran Conflict Escalates: What Trump’s Strategy Means For India, Pakistan And Global Stability

Following the escalating Iran-Israel armed hostilities, Israel claims control of the skies above Iran, while Iran insists its missiles are penetrating the vaunted Israeli air defences, called the “Iron Dome”. Israel has destroyed or damaged most of Iran’s nuclear enrichment infrastructure, except the facility at Fordow, embedded deep in a mountain.

Israeli media censorship bars sharing of videos and photos of damage done by Iranian missiles. The Western narrative mostly follows Israeli briefings. However, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s urgent calls for the US to finish the job indicate a stalemate.

Only American bunker-buster bombs, developed to penetrate and hit targets deep underground or embedded in mountains, can try dismantling Fordow’s uranium enrichment centrifuges. US president Donald Trump went for the G-7 summit in Canada, still undecided over joining the Israeli attack or trying talks one last time.

Aborting his trip, he rushed back to the White House. He said French president Emmanuel Macron was merely “publicity seeking” when he suggested that Trump was busy arranging a ceasefire between the warring rivals. But Trump’s statements have become progressively more aggressive.

After meeting his national security team, he spoke to the Israeli prime minister. Then came his sledgehammer remark seeking Iran’s “unconditional surrender”. Earlier, on the flight home, he told journalists that he was not “too much in the mood to negotiate now”.

Most shocking were Trump’s remarks about knowing where the Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was hiding but the US was yet “not going to take him out”. Such nonchalant and casual talk about assassinating leaders of rival countries ill behoves the president of a supposed liberal democracy. The plot, as the phrase goes, has thickened.

For India, the issue of greater concern is the US president hosting a private lunch for the visiting Pakistani Chief of Army Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir at the White House on June 18. The US had earlier denied inviting him for the parade, on June 14, to celebrate the 250th anniversary of the US army, which also happened to be Trump’s birthday.

This landed the Indian government in an extremely embarrassing situation. Prime Minister Narendra Modi went to the G-7 Summit with two important meetings in mind. First, to engage the new Canadian prime minister, Mark Carney, and reset relations after a longish diplomatic standoff.

Second, more importantly, PM Modi needed warm interaction with US president Donald Trump to remove public concerns in India about Trump patronisingly claiming to have mediated a ceasefire between India and Pakistan. The first meeting was fruitful, and high commissioners may soon be reappointed. The second never happened as Trump left.

Apparently, Modi was on the phone with Trump from Canada. President Trump invited him to fly back via Washington. The optics of the Indian prime minister and the Pakistani COAS, whose complicity in the Pahalgam terror attack cannot be ruled out, meeting Trump within hours of each other were politically toxic. PM Modi correctly dodged it, pleading he had other urgent engagements. Trump tends to remember snubs.

President Trump wanted PM Modi in the White House also because, as he planned to attack Iran, the Indian prime minister meeting him would convey Indian support. Iran would have taken that as an unfriendly act. Although the Modi government has diplomatically been tilting towards Israel, being seen alongside Trump would have punctured Indian claims of neutrality.

Indian concerns extend beyond the immediate embarrassment of the first-ever Pakistani army chief, not also the head of government, to be hosted by the US president. It ties in with the next steps in the American strategy to tackle Iran. Pakistan is allegedly already sharing intelligence about Iranian military deployments.

Next, if the US attacks Iran, there is near certainty of Iranian retaliation against US bases around Iran, including American naval vessels. The US and its Gulf allies, despite shedding crocodile tears for Iranian suffering, need safe sanctuaries for their military aircraft and naval vessels.

Thus Pakistan, like in past decades, becomes critical for US’s military operations in the region. It will, in return, get military assistance and equipment and financial aid from multilateral agencies. It would also get a free pass for abetting terrorism against India.

It is unimaginable that the US joining the Israeli onslaught on Iranian nuclear facilities, command and control systems and personnel would not spill over regionally. Iran has threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz. That would disrupt 20% of global oil supply, crippling economies of developed and developing nations.

The 6-nation Gulf Coordination Council’s share of Indian trade was 15.42% during 2024-25, which will get blocked. Finally, the over 8 million diasporas can get caught amidst an expanded Gulf war. India is already facing the challenge of getting a few hundred students out of Iran. But imagine the crisis if the sea link is blocked and the flights disrupted.

China and Russia may publicly condemn the attacks on Iran, but neither would be unhappy if the US defence forces got bogged down in the Gulf. China would first monitor the performance of US weapons while preparing an attack to occupy Taiwan. That may commence as soon as China sees the US preoccupation mounting. Similarly, Russia is not unhappy with the focus shifting from Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelensky did not get the attention he desired at the G-7 summit in Canada, with President Trump exiting prematurely.

India is bigger than the middle powers but not a major power yet in terms of its defence capabilities. Trump’s US may no longer tolerate India’s fence-sitting, as many past US presidents did. If the Iranian regime crumbles, Pakistan may benefit more, as it did when US ally Mohammed Raza Pahlavi, the Shah of Iran, ruled till 1979. As airline pilots announce when approaching turbulence, the best advice is to tighten your seatbelts.

KC Singh is a former secretary, Ministry of External Affairs.