India’s Balancing Act: Navigating Trump’s Unpredictable Geopolitical Shifts

Former U.S. President, Donald Trump’s foreign policy has always been characterized by an “America First” approach, often at the expense of traditional alliances. His recent controversial actions—such as isolating U.S. allies, supporting Russia in the United Nations by refusing to name it as an aggressor, and potentially attempting to draw Russia away from China—signal a major shift in global geopolitics. These moves will have far-reaching consequences, affecting not just Europe and Asia but also India’s strategic positioning. Below is a detailed breakdown of these developments and their implications.

How Will India Be Impacted?

Implications for India-Russia Relations; If Trump successfully pulls Russia away from China, India could benefit. Moscow has historically been a key defense and energy partner for New Delhi. A Russia less dependent on China would mean fewer concerns for India about Russia-China military cooperation and arms transfers.

Strategic Balancing in the Indo-Pacific; India has been strengthening its partnerships with the U.S., Japan, and Australia through the QUAD, while also maintaining its historical ties with Russia. If Trump weakens U.S. alliances in Asia, India might need to play a more proactive role in regional security, possibly taking a leadership position in balancing China’s aggression.

China’s Growing Regional Dominance; if Trump completely isolates U.S. allies, China could become the dominant force in Asia, challenging India’s security interests. This could lead to increased Chinese assertiveness along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and in South Asia, particularly in countries like Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Myanmar.

Economic and Trade Considerations; If Trump’s policies lead to global trade disruptions, India could face both risks and opportunities. A breakdown in U.S.-China trade relations might push American companies to invest more in India, but economic instability could also negatively impact Indian exports.

Defense and Technology Transfers; A shift in U.S.-Russia relations under Trump could impact India’s defense procurement. If Russia moves closer to the U.S., India might find it easier to continue buying Russian weapons without facing U.S. sanctions under CAATSA (Countering America’s Adversaries through Sanctions Act). However, any significant U.S.-Russia cooperation could also impact India’s defense partnerships with both nations.

Fallout of Trump’s Move to Isolate Allies

Weakened Transatlantic Relations; Trump’s presidency has been marked by tensions with European allies over defense spending, trade policies, and multilateral agreements like the Paris Climate Accord. His repeated criticism of NATO, calling it “obsolete,” and his demands for Europe to shoulder more of its own security costs have already strained U.S.-Europe ties. Trump’s return to office and continuation of his isolationist approach, European nations are being pushed for greater strategic autonomy, reducing reliance on Washington.

Threat to NATO and European Security; Trump is poised to reduce U.S. commitments to NATO and questioning of Article 5 (the mutual defense clause), Eastern European nations such as Poland, the Baltic States, and Ukraine could be left in lurch. Europe might be forced to bolster its defense spending and coordination, but a lack of American support would still weaken the alliance’s deterrence against Moscow.

Asian Allies in a Dilemma; In the Indo-Pacific, U.S. allies such as Japan, South Korea, and Australia have counted on Washington’s commitment to counterbalance China’s growing influence. If Trump reduces U.S. support for alliances like AUKUS and QUAD, these nations may have to explore alternative security partnerships, possibly strengthening their ties with India and European powers like France and the UK.

China’s Geopolitical Advantage; Trump’s retreat from alliances would create a vacuum that China could exploit. Beijing has been actively expanding its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), offering economic and military incentives to countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. If U.S. allies feel abandoned, China might step in with economic aid and security partnerships, further eroding American influence in the world.

Economic and Trade Consequences; Trump’s previous trade wars with the European Union and China disrupted global markets. President’s return to aggressive protectionism might lead to retaliatory tariffs, reduced global trade cooperation, and economic instability. The U.S. could also lose influence in international trade forums, giving China an opportunity to dominate global trade policies.

Against this backdrop, for Vladimir Putin, it was undoubtedly a momentous day on the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine besides being highly symbolic UN votes exposed a widening rift between the United States and its European allies—precisely what Moscow had long desired.

In a stunning turn, Washington sided with Russia, North Korea, and Belarus in opposing a Europe-backed Ukrainian resolution at the UN General Assembly, which condemned Moscow’s aggression and demanded an immediate troop withdrawal. The motion still passed 93-8, with 73 abstentions, including China.

Furthering this shift, the US pushed the UN Security Council to pass a resolution calling for an end to the war—conspicuously avoiding any reference to Russia’s invasion. The measure secured backing from 10 of 15 council members, including China, while Britain, France, and three other European nations abstained.

For some, these votes mark a historical turning point. Trump’s alignment with Moscow signals the unravelling of America’s transatlantic security commitments. His pivot to Russia, ostensibly to end the war, side-lines Kyiv and Brussels, making lasting peace unlikely though pressure tactics may yield result. Meanwhile, Beijing sees strategic advantage in this shift, hoping to mend its strained ties with Europe and Washington as the global order tilts toward an authoritarian axis.

Why Did Trump Support Russia in the UN and Avoid Naming It as an Aggressor?

Reversing Biden’s Hardliner Stance on Russia; The Biden administration has provided massive military and economic aid to Ukraine while imposing harsh sanctions on Russia. Trump has repeatedly questioned this approach, arguing that Europe should bear more of the financial burden for Ukraine’s defense. His refusal to label Russia as an aggressor signals a potential shift in U.S. policy away from direct confrontation with Moscow.

Political Calculations for Domestic Support; Trump’s voter base largely opposes prolonged foreign interventions and prefers a focus on domestic economic issues. Many Republican lawmakers have also become skeptical of continued U.S. aid to Ukraine, arguing that taxpayer money should be spent at home. By downplaying Russian aggression, Trump is likely trying to align with this sentiment and solidify his support base ahead of the elections.

Signalling to Putin for Potential Negotiations; Trump has often portrayed himself as a dealmaker, and his refusal to condemn Russia outright may be a strategic move to keep negotiation channels open with Moscow. He has previously suggested that he could end the Ukraine war quickly through direct talks with Putin, though the feasibility of such a claim remains questionable.

Risk of Undermining U.S. Foreign Policy Consistency; If Trump reverses America’s stance on Russia, it could create divisions within Washington. Many Republican leaders, particularly those with hawkish foreign policy views, see Russia as a major threat. A softening approach towards Putin could alienate key figures in Congress and create internal policy conflicts.

Is Trump Trying to Win Over Putin to Keep Him Away from China?

Strategic Realignment Against China ;Trump has consistently viewed China as America’s primary geopolitical rival, imposing tariffs, restricting technology transfers, and countering Beijing’s military expansion in the South China Sea. By warming up to Putin, Trump might be trying to weaken the Russia-China partnership, which has strengthened significantly due to Western sanctions.

Historical Parallels: Nixon’s Playbook; During the Cold War, President Richard Nixon used a similar strategy to separate China and the Soviet Union, ensuring they did not form a unified bloc against the West. Trump might be attempting a modern version of this strategy by drawing Russia closer to the U.S. to prevent it from fully aligning with China.

Challenges in Breaking Russia-China Ties ;While Trump may offer diplomatic or economic incentives to Putin, the reality is that Russia and China have built a strong strategic partnership based on shared opposition to Western dominance. Russia relies heavily on Chinese markets for its energy exports, and Beijing has provided diplomatic cover for Moscow on global platforms like the UN. A complete Russian pivot away from China is unlikely.

Russia’s Cautious Approach; Putin is unlikely to blindly trust Trump, given his unpredictable policy swings. Russia would likely seek to maintain balanced ties with both China and the U.S., using Trump’s overtures to extract economic and security concessions without fully severing its relationship with Beijing.

Conclusion

Trump’s moves to isolate U.S. allies, support Russia in the UN, and potentially win over Putin to counterbalance China could significantly reshape global geopolitics. While these actions might be aimed at repositioning U.S. influence, their success remains uncertain.

For India, these shifts present both challenges and opportunities. A weakened U.S. alliance system could increase China’s regional dominance, forcing India to take on a larger strategic role. However, if Trump successfully distances Russia from China, India could benefit from a more independent Moscow. Ultimately, New Delhi will need to navigate these changes carefully to protect its security and economic interests.

(Writer is strategic affairs columnist and senior political analyst)

Published on: Sunday, March 02, 2025, 07:54 AM IST