Congress Stoops To Conquer: Playing Small In The Big Game Of 2029

Lifted by its relatively improved performance in the June 2024 Parliamentary polls and with an eye on the 2029 general elections, the Congress party has adopted a bizarre strategy of shrinking to grow.

The Congress plan, though paradoxical, is straightforward — weaken the arch-rival Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), bring it down from its high pedestal and shatter the myth that the BJP under Prime Minister Narendra Modi is invincible, before devising a strategy for the 2029 Lok Sabha elections.

The Congress strategy is in full view in the upcoming Assembly elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand and in the Assembly by-elections in Uttar Pradesh. The party is contesting fewer seats compared to the past. Maharashtra presents the most striking example of this strategic shift. Compared to 2019, when it contested 145 seats in the 288-member Assembly, the party is contesting 60 fewer seats this time. In Jharkhand, too, Congress is contesting only 30 seats compared to 31 in 2019. And in Uttar Pradesh, set to witness by-elections in nine Assembly segments, it remains in sulking mode. The party has spurned the offer of contesting two seats given by alliance partner Samajwadi Party and has instead announced it will work for the victory of its allies.

In Maharashtra particularly, it was compelled to agree to contest only 85 seats by demanding allies, notably the Shiv Sena (UBT). This concession comes despite the party's exceptional performance in the June Lok Sabha polls, when 13 out of its 15 candidates emerged victorious, yielding an impressive strike rate of 76.47%. In contrast, the Shiv Sena (UBT) won just nine of the 21 seats it contested, yet this did not deter the regional outfit from demanding more seats, as it angles for the chief minister's post for its supremo Uddhav Thackeray should the opposition MVA emerge victorious. While winning 13 Lok Sabha seats from the state, Congress established clear leads in 63 Assembly segments compared to the Shiv Sena (UBT)'s 56.

In Jharkhand, the Congress party outperformed its regional ally Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) in the Lok Sabha polls, both in seats winning and leading in assembly segments falling under the Lok Sabha constituencies.

This contraction of contesting fewer seats and agreeing to play second fiddle to regional allies like the Shiv Sena (UBT), JMM and the Samajwadi Party raises several critical questions. These include whether the party risks eroding its grassroots presence and organisational strength; and more crucially, whether it can sustain the party's prime ministerial aspirations for Rahul Gandhi without threatening its narrative as a national alternative to the BJP.

The strategy of focusing on seats where it has better chances of winning and contesting fewer constituencies has been in vogue for some time, and it has yielded satisfactory dividends thus far. In the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, Congress contested 464 seats and recorded its worst-ever performance, winning just 44 seats. Five years hence, it contested 421 seats and its tally rose by 52 seats, while in the 2024 elections, it contested 328 seats and emerged victorious in 99 constituencies.

Although it was the Congress party's third-worst performance in Parliamentary elections, it did not deter the party from celebrating as though it had won the elections. Its twin success lay in preventing the BJP from winning a simple majority on its own and becoming eligible to make its leader Rahul Gandhi Leader of the Opposition after winning the minimum required 10 per cent of the total strength of the Lok Sabha. This was no mean achievement considering Congress was denied this post in 2014 and 2019. It was seen as one step closer to its ambition of seeing Rahul Gandhi become PM.

The rot began setting in after Rajiv Gandhi's assassination in the run-up to the 1991 Lok Sabha polls, where it formed and ran a minority government successfully with PV Narasimha Rao as the head of both party and government. The Rao government had to make several sacrifices to remain in power.

Rao’s compulsion transformed into a strategic plan when Sonia Gandhi assumed the presidency of Congress in 1998. Blinded by her stark antipathy towards the BJP, exemplified by her “Maut ka Saudagar” (Merchant of Death) jibe at then-Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi during the 2007 Gujarat polls, the Congress party began ceding space to regional parties wherever they were seen as capable of halting the BJP's growth. This meant that in several politically key states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal, the Congress became a subsidiary of regional parties, leaving open a golden opportunity for the BJP to become the principal Opposition in those states. As Congress started contesting fewer seats, its frustrated cadre began shifting to other parties, and the party organisation in those states weakened.

This explains why and how long-term strategy was overlooked for short-term gains, reducing the Congress party to a mere shadow of its glorious past, now struggling to cross the century mark in the Lok Sabha and forced to use the crutches of regional parties to stand in national politics. The ensuing round of Assembly elections may thus not help the party regain its lost footprint in Indian politics as, whether willingly or forced under coalition dharma, it is contesting just a handful of seats.

Ajay Jha is a senior journalist, author and political commentator