All Eyes On Thackeray Cousins’ Dussehra Rally: Possible Shiv Sena-MNS Reunion Could Shake Up Maharashtra Politics

All eyes are on Thursday's Dussehra rally to be held by Shiv Sena (UBT) Chief Uddhav Thackeray in Mumbai. The buzz is that some kind of reunion, if not an alliance, may be announced between Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena and his estranged cousin Raj Thackeray's party, Maharashtra Navnirman Sena, or MNS.

Will this actually happen, or is it only a rumour? And if such a reunion or alliance is announced, will it be limited to Mumbai municipal polls, or will it cover the entire state of Maharashtra? There are many questions in the minds of even the followers of the Thackeray cousins, as nothing has been told to most of them as yet, 24 hours before the Dussehra rally! But one thing is certain: many new equations will be set all over the state if the Thackeray cousins announce some kind of a political alliance for the forthcoming civic polls.

The possible reunion of the Thackerays may change a lot of prospects, especially in the BrihanMumbai Municipal Corporation, Asia's richest civic body. In the last civic polls, there was a close contest between the BJP and the Shiv Sena. The saffron partners, who had been in an alliance for over two and a half decades, fought a bitter battle, and Uddhav emerged with a slight edge over the BJP to get power in the civic body.

The next round of polls was due in 2022 but could not happen mainly because of the dispute over the reservation for certain categories of candidates. Now, finally, the polls are due, and for Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena, this in every sense is a 'make or break' battle.

The BJP has been very alert and is keenly watching the developments between Uddhav and Raj Thackeray. In the recent past, one saw Raj Thackeray change his political stance multiple times, sometimes extending support to the BJP in his speeches while at other times severely criticising it.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha and assembly polls, Raj vehemently targeted the BJP and sided with Sharad Pawar and other opposition alliance partners, while in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, he openly and clearly announced that his party and followers will be extending unconditional support to the Narendra Modi-led BJP. This makes Raj Thackeray highly unpredictable.

The BJP have been discussing various options in their conventions in Mumbai and Pune about how to handle the situation in case Uddhav and Raj Thackeray announce some kind of alliance for Mumbai and Thane municipal polls.

Most BJP insiders say that their guess is that in other municipal corporations, such as Pune, Navi Mumbai, Nashik, etc., the cousins and their parties will not join hands, but in Mumbai and Thane they may announce some seat-sharing deal and fight the polls unitedly. In such a case, many things will subtly change within the BJP-led Mahayuti.

Firstly, the BJP will quickly change the equation with its alliance partner, Deputy Chief Minister Eknath Shinde. Currently, the BJP has completely alienated Shinde. Everybody at the state headquarters, Mantralaya, has been speaking about how Shinde is being sidelined and the other alliance partner, Ajit Pawar, has been given more importance by the BJP leadership for the past few months.

This situation will change in case Uddhav and Raj Thackeray come together. The BJP will start empowering Eknath Shinde if they sense that Uddhav and Raj are joining hands. For the BJP, the Mumbai municipal polls are now a matter of prestige. The BJP will go out of their way to establish a majority in the BMC, and for that they will take Eknath Shinde along as their biggest partner.

Secondly, the BJP will value its current alliance partners more if it sees Uddhav and Raj uniting and will create more space for Ajit Pawar in the Pune and Pimpri-Chinchwad Municipal Corporations (PCMC) and more space for Eknath Shinde in Thane and Navi Mumbai. Currently, there is a lot of discussion in the Pune unit of the BJP about how to handle Ajit Pawar's NCP and its members in Pune and the PCMC. If Uddhav and Raj unite, the BJP will be less aggressive against Ajit Pawar in the Pune region.

Thirdly, the BJP-led Mahayuti will become very active in its attempt to encourage various second- or third-rung leaders of the Thackeray-led parties to cross over to Mahayuti, not just in Mumbai but in other cities of the state too. Similar things have been seen in the past done under the branding of "Operation Kamal".

Another aspect of the possibility of the Uddhav-Raj reunion is to watch how Uddhav Thackeray's current partners, i.e., the Congress and Sharad Pawar's NCP, will react to this new development. The Congress would clearly be uncomfortable with the prospect of Raj Thackeray's MNS coming close to the Maha Vikas Aghadi alliance (MVA) of Congress, Sharad Pawar and Uddhav.

How will the MVA react to Uddhav and Raj's reunion? It may lead to some changes in the state politics. To summarise, one can surely say that the Thursday Dussehra rally may change a lot of equations in Maharashtra, and it will be interesting to watch how politics shapes after that.

Rohit Chandavarkar is a senior journalist who has worked for 31 years with various leading newspaper brands and television channels in Mumbai and Pune.

Published on: Wednesday, October 01, 2025, 11:36 PM IST